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    林波,  , 刘琪璟, 尚鹤2, 王英伟, 隋祥. MIKE 11/ NAM 模型在挠力河流域的应用[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2014, 36(5): 99-108. DOI: 10.13332/j.cnki.jbfu.2014.05.010
    引用本文: 林波,  , 刘琪璟, 尚鹤2, 王英伟, 隋祥. MIKE 11/ NAM 模型在挠力河流域的应用[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2014, 36(5): 99-108. DOI: 10.13332/j.cnki.jbfu.2014.05.010
    LIN Bo, LIU Qi-jing, SHANG He, WANG Ying-wei, SUI Xiang, . Application of coulpled MIKE 11/ NAM model in Naoli River Basin, northeastern China.[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2014, 36(5): 99-108. DOI: 10.13332/j.cnki.jbfu.2014.05.010
    Citation: LIN Bo, LIU Qi-jing, SHANG He, WANG Ying-wei, SUI Xiang, . Application of coulpled MIKE 11/ NAM model in Naoli River Basin, northeastern China.[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2014, 36(5): 99-108. DOI: 10.13332/j.cnki.jbfu.2014.05.010

    MIKE 11/ NAM 模型在挠力河流域的应用

    Application of coulpled MIKE 11/ NAM model in Naoli River Basin, northeastern China.

    • 摘要: 在水文水资源的管理实践中,气候变化以及农业开发等活动对流域水资源的影响往往无法通过数据直观体 现,水文模型常被用于提供水资源管理决策所必须的一些重要信息。集总式概念模型结构简单,仅依赖有限的数 据和较少的参数即可对流域主要水文过程进行有效的模拟。本研究将MIKE 11 水动力模型和降雨径流模型 (NAM)耦合,应用到三江平原挠力河流域。结果表明,MIKE 11/ NAM 模型可以对挠力河流域降雨径流过程进行较 好的模拟,模型在率定期的表现优于验证期。造成模型在验证期模拟效果降低的最主要原因可能是强烈的农业开 发活动对流域下垫面性质的改变。20 世纪50 年代以来三江平原地区高强度的农业开发活动深刻影响了流域水文 情势,并且这种影响在近20 年仍然持续。本研究所构建模型的不确定性主要来源于输入数据的时空精度、模型结 构和最优参数集的选择。

       

      Abstract: In the practice of water resource management, the effects of land use and climate changes on basin scale water regime have become increasingly concerned, for which data are not directly available. Despite their simplicity, lumped conceptual model can effectively represent the major hydrologic processes based on limited data and a modest numbers of parameters. A coupled MIKE 11 HD/ NAM modelling system was constructed to simulate the rainfall-runoff process of Naoli River Basin in northeastern China. Results showed that MIKE 11/ NAM was capable of simulating the rainfall/ runoff process of Naoli River Basin. Model performance in validation period was generally better than that in calibration period, which was mainly caused by the modification of underlying surface characteristics due to intensive human activities. The ongoing agricultural development since 1950 had significantly changed the hydrological regime of the watershed, and there was no sign that the wetland degradation trend had stopped recently. The uncertainty of our conceptual model comes mainly from input data, model structure and the selection of optimal parameter set.

       

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