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    董灵波, 孙云霞, 刘兆刚. 基于碳和木材目标的森林空间经营规划研究[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2017, 39(1): 52-61. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20160166
    引用本文: 董灵波, 孙云霞, 刘兆刚. 基于碳和木材目标的森林空间经营规划研究[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2017, 39(1): 52-61. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20160166
    DONG Ling-bo, SUN Yun-xia, LIU Zhao-gang. Integrating carbon and timber objective into forest spatial planning management[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2017, 39(1): 52-61. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20160166
    Citation: DONG Ling-bo, SUN Yun-xia, LIU Zhao-gang. Integrating carbon and timber objective into forest spatial planning management[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2017, 39(1): 52-61. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20160166

    基于碳和木材目标的森林空间经营规划研究

    Integrating carbon and timber objective into forest spatial planning management

    • 摘要: 以大兴安岭地区塔河林业局盘古林场为例,以模拟退火算法为优化技术,以经济收益为基础,建立能够兼顾森林木材生产、碳储量和经营措施时空分布的多目标规划模型。规划周期由3个10年的分期组成,目标函数包括最大化木材和碳储量贴现净收益、最小化采伐成本,而约束条件则主要涉及最小收获年龄、收获次数、收获均衡以及空间邻接约束等。同时,还评估了一系列碳价格对规划结果的影响。结果表明:由于规划模型中空间和非空间约束的限制,规划期内获得的各种经济收益、木材产量以及碳储量等均随着碳价格的增加呈显著的非线性变化趋势;与碳价格为0元/t时的规划结果相比,当碳价格为我国当前现行碳交易的平均(25元/t)和最高(50元/t)价格时,规划期末的总经济收益分别增加了2.06%和3.91%,但规划期内木材产量和碳储量却无显著差异;如果仅从经济角度考虑,则能够使规划期末单位面积碳储量增加的最低碳价格为1 000元/t。同时,研究结果还表明碳价格虽然显著影响规划期内不同经营措施的采伐面积比例,但规划结果均满足均衡收获约束。

       

      Abstract: In this paper, based on the economic effect, a persuasive model for multi-objective forest management planning, which integrated the carbon stock and spatial configurations of management treatments into traditional timber harvest scheduling model, was developed for the Pangu Forest Farm in Great Xing'an Mountains, northeastern China. And the standard version of simulated annealing was employed. The planning cycle was divided into three 10-years periods. The planning formulations were to maximize the discount net present values (NPV) of timber production and carbon stock, while minimize the NPV of harvesting costs and penalty values. The constraints mainly concern the needs of minimum harvest ages, harvest times, even-flow of harvest volume and adjacency constraints, etc. In addition, the effects of a set of carbon prices were evaluated quantificationally on the results of planning. The simulated results showed that the NPVs of total and three sub-objectives (i.e., timber, carbon and spatial configurations of management treatments), as well as the amount of timber harvested and carbon sequestrated, all presented significant non-linear trends with the increases of carbon price. Compared with the carbon price of 0 CNY/t, the total NPVs increased approximately by 2.06% and 3.91% when the mean (25 CNY/t)and highest(50 CNY/t)carbon prices collected from the market of carbon trading were adopted into the planning model, however the differences of timber production and carbon stock were not significant. We further found that the lowest carbon price that could increase the levels of carbon stock per hectare within the whole planning period should be 1 000 CNY/t if it was evaluated purely from the economic perspective. In addition, the results also showed that the percentages of different management treatments assigned in the optimal plans could be affected significantly by the carbon price, anyway all the solutions meet the even-flow constraints of harvest volume.

       

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