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    刘鸣, 张德顺. 近55年气候变化对上海园林树种适应性的影响[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2018, 40(9): 107-117. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20180113
    引用本文: 刘鸣, 张德顺. 近55年气候变化对上海园林树种适应性的影响[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2018, 40(9): 107-117. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20180113
    Liu Ming, Zhang Deshun. Adaptability of landscape tree species response to climate change in Shanghai within the past 55 years[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2018, 40(9): 107-117. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20180113
    Citation: Liu Ming, Zhang Deshun. Adaptability of landscape tree species response to climate change in Shanghai within the past 55 years[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2018, 40(9): 107-117. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20180113

    近55年气候变化对上海园林树种适应性的影响

    Adaptability of landscape tree species response to climate change in Shanghai within the past 55 years

    • 摘要:
      目的近几年,关于城市树木的气候适应性研究在国际上已成为前沿和热点,然而,我国开展园林树木应对气候变化的适应性研究则较少。本文通过对上海1961—2015年55年间40种园林树种气候适应性的定量化评估,探讨了气候变化对树木健康生长产生的潜在影响,为适应未来气候的园林树种选择和科学管理提供依据。
      方法采用物种分布模型(Species distribution model)从世界范围内对目标树种的自然地理分布进行广泛而全面的信息收集,提取其地理分布所在区域的气候因子数据,构建树种气候因子数据库,确定树种最适气候幅度,最后采用欧式距离计算各树种最适气候因子与上海气候的差异,进行气候适应性评估。
      结果近55年来,上海年均温度由15.5℃上升至16.6℃,市区温差上升趋势最为突出,但未达到显著水平;年均降水量由1086.0mm上升至1198.9mm,湿季全市平均降水、郊区之间、市区与郊区之间变化均达到显著性水平;按年均生物温度和干湿指数可将目标树种分为4类:炎热干燥气候型、温暖湿润气候型、温凉干燥气候型和温凉湿润气候型;前30年,上海郊区气候条件最适宜温凉干燥的落叶树种生长,温凉湿润型树种次之,温暖湿润型树种再次,炎热干燥气候型树种居末;近30年,市区气候出现新变化,温暖湿润型树种适应性排名已占据绝对优势,温凉湿润型和温凉干燥型树种适应性依次下降。
      结论上海近55年来的气候变化以温度的普遍升高和湿季降水的显著增加为特征。上海气候变化对园林树种的适应性产生了潜在影响,改变了园林树种选择的优先序列。

       

      Abstract:
      ObjectiveIn recent years, research on tree's adapting to climate change has become a hot topic in the world. So far there are few researches on adaptability of landscape tree species response to climate change in China. Based on temperature and precipitation data from 1961 to 2015 in Shanghai, climate adaptation of 40 landscape tree species was assessed quantitatively, and the potential impacts of climate change on their growth were analyzed in the future scenarios.
      MethodThe SDM (Species distribution model) was used to collect the comprehensive geographical information of the target species worldwide, then the climatic data of all occurrences were extracted to identify their climate characters. The most suitable climatic characters were finally determined by the Euclidean Distance Method to calculate the differences between the optimal factors and state of Shanghai climate in different periods.
      ResultIn the past 55 years, annual mean temperature (AMT) of Shanghai rose from 15.5 to 16.6℃. The increasing trend of temperature difference in the downtown was most prominent, but it did not reach a significant level. Annual mean precipitation (AMP) also went up from 1086.0 to 1198.9mm, and in humidity season, changes of average precipitation in overall city, among suburban areas, between urban and suburban areas all reached significant levels. According to annual mean biological temperature (ABT) and dry-wet index (HI), 40 target tree species can be categorized into 4 types: hot-dry climate type, warm-humid climate type, cool-dry climate type and cool-humid climate type. In the first 30 years, the climate conditions in suburbs are suitable for the growth of deciduous trees preferring cool-dry climate, followed by cool-humid tree species, and warm-humid tree species, then hot-dry climate type tree species. However, in the recent 30 years, the climate in the downtown has changed dramatically. The adaptability of the warm-humid tree species has taken the advantage, and the cool-humid tree species and the cool-dry tree species have declined in turn.
      ConclusionIn the past 55 years, the characteristics of climate change in Shanghai can be summarized as temperature warming and precipitation increasing in the rainy season. Climate change has potential impacts on the adaptability of landscape tree species, and has changed the priority sequence for tree species selection.

       

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