Response of invasive area of Ageratina adenophora to future climate change based on climate and species diffusion

  Objective  Ageratina adenophora is one of the most serious invasive species in southwestern China, causing huge economic losses every year. The diffusion ability is related to the harmfulness of invasive species, and it is also an important factor to determine their distribution area, and is often ignored in the study of potential distribution and potential invasive area.

  Method  To quantify the potential invasive area of A. adenophora under the background of climate change based on species diffusion, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm was used to predict the potential suitable area of A. adenophora. After obtaining the suitable distribution area under the general climate emission scenarios in 2050 and 2070, based on the current distribution, cellular automata was used to simulate the diffusion of A. adenophora in the suitable area, and the potential invasive area of A. adenophora under the general greenhouse gases emission scenarios in 2050 and 2070 was predicted.

  Result  The temperature seasonality, minimum temperature of the coldest month, precipitation in the driest season, annual precipitation and the precipitation of the coldest season are important climatic factors affecting the distribution of A. adenophora. The suitable distribution area of A. adenophora will increase from 79.68 × 10⁴ km² to 120.26 × 10⁴ km² in 2050, and then decrease to 111.97 × 10⁴ km² in 2070. Compared with the current distribution area of A. adenophora, its potential invasive area will increase to 88.27 × 10⁴ km² in 2050 SSPs45 scenario and 95.35 × 10⁴ km² in 2070.

  Conclusion  The potential invasive area of A. adenophora is limited by the diffusion rate, which is always smaller than its suitable distribution area, but it gradually increases with climate change. Due to the impact of global climate change, Sichuan, Guizhou of southwestern China, Guangxi of southern China and other provinces should take further measures to control the spread of A. adenophora in the future. The prediction results reflect the spatial-temporal pattern of invasive species to a certain extent, and can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of invasive species.