Distribution modeling of breeding hooded crane in Heilongjiang basin

The hooded crane (Grus monacha) is the first class national protected animal and is classified as vulnerable on the IUCN Red List. Except for the reports of its breeding habitats in Heilongjiang basin and southeastern Siberia, little research has been conducted to date regarding its essential habitat needs. To master the distribution and features of the hooded crane's breeding habitat and better implement the protection of the species and its habitats, we carried out investigations of the breeding habitats of hooded crane in Lesser Xing'an Mountains, northeastern China during 2011—2013. This study presents and analyzes the best available compiled nest data of hooded crane from the last decade (2001—2010) for the first time. The Random Forest model was built to analyze the crane's breeding habitat on an international landscape level by using Salford Predictive Modeler and R. Then, the predicted breeding habitat was mapped in the geographical information system (GIS). The Random Forest model shows that the top three influential factors are elevation, slope and aspect, that is, cranes in the boreal taiga select slopes less than 2.4°, elevation of 300—500m and aspects towards northeast as their breeding habitats. This prediction map estimates the presence of 2000—3000 pairs of hooded crane breeding in area of 6832km2 (approximately 0.18% of the study area). However, only a relative small area (784km2) of the predicted breeding area is located in the currently protected areas, in which also exist quantities of farmland and water conservancy facilities. Human interference and the lack of protected area are the most serious problems this species faces with.