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    中国森林碳汇溢出效应、生态聚集效应及其价值管理

    Forest carbon sink spillover effect, ecological aggregation effect and value management in China

    • 摘要:
      目的 深入了解我国森林碳汇状况,明确各省份森林碳汇价值生产之间的联系与溢出规律,旨在为提升森林碳汇管理水平、优化碳汇价值管理策略以及推动我国森林资源的高质量发展提供科学依据。
      方法 基于第八、九次森林资源清查数据,采用森林蓄积量扩展法核算2013—2018年我国森林碳汇价值,并通过社会网络分析法分析森林碳汇溢出效应和生态聚集效应,探讨森林碳汇价值管理策略。
      结果 (1)2013—2018年,我国森林碳储量和碳汇量显著增长,总碳汇价值达1 545.64亿元,年均碳汇实物增加量为2.17亿t,年均森林碳汇价值增加量为272.17亿元。(2)森林碳汇价值关联网络整体密度为0.273 1,虽网络密度较低,但网络关联度为1,表明网络整体通达情况较好且网络关联程度较高;森林碳汇价值关联网络等级度为0.426 6,反映不同省份之间的森林碳汇价值生产较为集中,网络间存在互相溢出的可能性;碳汇价值关联网络效率为0.632 2,表明信息传递效率较高,同时也表明网络通达性较好,并具有一定的稳定性。(3)森林碳汇价值关联网络中存在“强势省份”,如内蒙古、湖北、安徽等省份森林碳汇价值网络中介中心度较高,分别为160.83、106.79和54.09,远高于全国平均值19.91,说明这些省份在网络中处于核心与桥梁地位,具有生态聚集效应,但整体溢出能力仍需提升。
      结论 我国森林碳汇价值生产呈现显著的空间关联性,具体表现为生态联动效应,并形成碳汇“增长极”辐射效应。建议通过“分类管理 + 区域协作”的综合模式,推动森林资源的高质量发展,强化对森林碳汇价值关联网络的建设,以“增长极”带动整体网络协同发展,充分发挥生态聚集效应,实现碳汇价值最大化。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective This study aims to gain an in-depth understanding of the status of forest carbon sink in China, clarify the spatial connections and spillover mechanisms among forest carbon sink value production across provinces, improve the management level of forest carbon sink management, optimize the management mode of carbon sink value, and promote the high-quality development of forests in China.
      Method Based on the data of the 8th and9th National Forest Resources Inventories, the forest carbon sink value in China during 2013—2018 was estimated using the forest stock expansion method. Social network analysis was employed to analyze the spillover effects and ecological aggregation effects of forest carbon sinks, and corresponding the value management strategies were discussed.
      Result (1) From 2013 to 2018, China's forest carbon stock and carbon sink both increased significantly. From 2013 to 2018, the value of forest carbon sink in China was 154.564 billion RMB yuan, the average annual physical increase of forest carbon sink was 217 million t, and the average annual monertary value increase of forest carbon sink was 27.217 billion RMB yuan. (2) The overall density of forest carbon sink value association network is 0.273 1, which is not high, but the network correlation degree is 1, reflecting that the overall network access is good and the network correlation degree is high; The level of forest carbon sink value correlation network is 0.426 6, which reflects a relatively high degree of concentration in the production of forest carbon sink value in different provinces, and there is the possibility of mutual spillover between the networks. The efficiency of carbon sink value correlation network is 0.632 2, which reflects the high efficiency of network information transmission, and also indicates that the network has good accessibility and certain stability. (3) There are “strong provinces” in the forest carbon sink value association network, such as Inner Mongolia, Hubei, Anhui and other provinces, the network betweenness is higher, that is 160.83, 106.79 and 54.09, respectively, far exceeding the national average of 19.91 forest carbon sink value association network betweenness. These provinces are in the core and bridge position in the association network, and there is an ecological aggregation effect, but the overall spillover capacity needs to be improved.
      Conclusion The study found that the production of forest carbon sink value in China shows a significant spatial correlation, specifically manifested as an ecological linkage effect, and has formed a carbon sink “growth pole” with a radiation-driven effect.. In terms of management, the comprehensive management of “classified management + regional cooperation” should be adopted to promote high-quality forest development. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the understanding of the value association network of forest carbon sinks, and use the “growth pole” of forest carbon sink production to drive the overall network to “general growth”, promote the ecological aggregation effect, and maximize the value of forest carbon sink in China.

       

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