Objective As a key component of the ecological barrier on the Tibetan Plateau, the ecological network of Lhasa is crucial for safeguarding regional ecological security and promoting sustainable development. However, traditional approaches, often based on a static and single-temporal framework, struggle to account for future land-use dynamics, resulting in planning outcomes with limited foresight and adaptability. This study employs multi-scenario simulation to analyze the evolutionary characteristics of the ecological network under various land-use development pathways. It seeks to precisely identify priority areas for conservation and restoration, thereby providing a methodological framework to enhance the scientific rigor and precision of comprehensive territorial space governance.

Method This research integrates the PLUS model, the InVEST-MSPA model, and circuit theory to establish an analytical framework encompassing “scenario simulation, element identification, network optimization, and hierarchical management.” We first employ the PLUS model to project land use patterns for 2030 under three distinct scenarios: natural development, farmland protection, and ecological priority. Subsequently, ecological sources are extracted using the InVEST-MSPA model, and circuit theory is applied to delineate ecological corridors and identify critical nodes, including barriers and pinch points. In the final phase, priority areas for ecological conservation and restoration are delineated according to the differential evolution of ecological elements across the various scenarios. The core of this methodology lies in revealing the differential impacts of land-use change on the ecological network through multi-scenario comparison and by quantifying connectivity costs and key nodes via circuit theory, thereby facilitating dynamic optimization and targeted regulation of the network.

Result (1) Territorial spatial control strategies prioritizing ecological conservation effectively enhanced ecological quality and network structure. Under the natural development and farmland protection scenarios for 2030, construction land expanded markedly, with minimal changes in other land types. In contrast, the ecological priority scenario curbed construction land expansion, yielding marginal gains in forest, grassland, and water bodies. This scenario also increased the number and area of ecological sources, effectively integrating fragmented habitats and achieving optimal connectivity with the shortest total ecological corridor length.(2) Core elements underpinning the structural stability of the ecological network were identified. Despite localized variations in the network across different land-use scenarios, the distribution patterns and spatial locations of key ecological elements remained highly stable. This underscores their critical role in maintaining network functionality, warranting their designation as long-term conservation priorities.(3) Priority areas for territorial spatial conservation and restoration were delineated. The study pinpointed 204.47 km² of source areas, 50.46 km of primary corridors, and 64.8 km² of key nodes for focused intervention. Characterized by coexisting high degradation risk and high ecological value, these areas constitute the strategic priority for current territorial spatial management.

Conclusion This method enhances the ecological network structure and enables the effective identification of key areas for various ecological elements. By clarifying conservation and restoration priorities, it helps prevent common issues in comprehensive territorial spatial remediation, such as ambiguous targets and uneven resource allocation. The findings provide direct guidance for formulating targeted land management strategies in Lhasa and offer a valuable model for protecting and restoring other ecologically fragile regions.