Objective Forests exhibit externalities and face market failures. By introducing carbon policies and implementing appropriate management strategies, it is possible to maximize multi-objective benefits, fully harness the carbon sequestration potential of forests, and contribute to achieving the “Dual Carbon” goals.

Method This paper takes Pinus tabuliformis plantations in Shaanxi Province, China as the research object, and constructs a stand growth model based on the Richards equation using analytic timber data; constructs a carbon stock growth model based on the conversion factor continuous function method; and simulates and calculates the expected value of forest land and the optimal rotation period under different carbon policy scenarios based on the Faustmann-Hartman model; under carbon tax and carbon subsidy policies, the carbon storage of forest stands is calculated at different carbon prices; through the method of sensitivity analysis, quantitatively studies the impact of different economic parameters on the expected value of forest land and the optimal rotation period.

Result (1) At an interest rate of 4%, a carbon price of 50 CNY/t, and a timber price of 980 CNY/m³, the optimal rotation period is 56.2 years when only considering timber revenue., with an expected land expectation value of 11 203 CNY/ha. Introducing a carbon subsidy policy extends the optimal rotation period by 0.4 years and increases LEV to 11 935 CNY/ha. Further incorporating a carbon tax policy does not alter the rotation period but reduces LEV to 11499 CNY/ha due to penalties on carbon loss. (2) Incentive-based carbon policies enhance forest carbon storage: a 1-unit increase in carbon price raises carbon storage per hectare by 3%. (3) As the discount rate increases from 1% to 5%, the optimal rotation period shortens progressively. When the timber price increased from 700 yuan/m³ to 1 200 yuan/m³, the optimal rotation period remained almost unchanged. (4) Carbon subsidies and taxes increase LEV and prolong the optimal rotation period.

Conclusion Hybrid carbon policies can effectively extend the rotation period and increase stand carbon storage, thereby promoting the sustainable development of forests. Adjustments to market prices and interest rates can further extend the optimal rotation period, enhancing the ecological functions of forests.