Objective This study aims to reveal the spatio-temporal evolution of vegetation cover in the transboundary Xingkai Lake Basin between China and Russia, a critical ecological transition zone, and to identify the relative contributions of climate change, soil-terrain factors, and human activities, thereby providing a scientific basis for regional ecosystem health management and differentiated conservation strategies.

Method Taking the Xingkai Lake Basin in China as research object, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used as a quantitative indicator of vegetation cover. Trend analysis, partial correlation analysis, and the geographical detector model were utilized to systematically evaluate the spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation changes and their influencing factors.

Results (1) NDVI exhibited a spatial pattern of decreasing from southwest to northeast, with an average annual increase rate of 0.001 (p < 0.05). Improvement areas accounted for 62.9% of the basin, while degradation areas comprised 4.8%, with the most significant enhancement observed in the Laoyeling Mountainous region in the southwest. (2) Geographical detector analysis indicated that soil type (q = 0.223) and elevation (q = 0.102) dominated the spatial differentiation of NDVI, while partial correlation analysis revealed that precipitation was the key climatic factor driving inter-annual variability (partial correlation coefficient = 0.21). (3) Human activities contributed 96.75% to vegetation improvement and 95.91% to vegetation degradation, dominating the basin's vegetation dynamics.

Conclusion Human activities constitute the primary driving force of vegetation change in the Xingkai Lake Basin, with their effect direction contingent upon land-use patterns: ecological restoration projects promote vegetation recovery, whereas urbanization leads to degradation. This study provides data support for differentiated management of transboundary ecological regions.