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    Meso-NH/ForeFire耦合在复杂山地林火蔓延模拟中的验证以安泽火灾为例

    Validation of the Meso-NH/ForeFire coupled model for wildfire spread simulation in complex terrain: a case study of the wildfire in Anze

    • 摘要:
      目的 在森林火灾中,气象条件是影响林火蔓延的核心因子,风与林火之间的相互作用机制是研究森林火灾的重要内容。Meso-NH/ForeFire林火–大气耦合模式能够通过双向反馈机制刻画火–气相互作用过程,但其在我国复杂地形条件下的适用性仍有待验证。
      方法 以山西省安泽县“4·13”森林火灾为研究对象,基于 ERA5 再分析数据,应用Meso-NH / ForeFire耦合模式对林火蔓延过程进行数值模拟,并结合气象站观测数据和实际过火区分布,对模拟风场和林火蔓延结果进行评估,同时与非耦合模拟结果进行对比分析。
      结果 (1)Meso-NH能够较好地模拟近地面风场的变化趋势,其模拟风场结果与气象站点模拟风场整体一致性较好;(2)耦合模式模拟结果显示火场在东南风控制下主要向西北方向扩展,与实际调查基本一致。(3)相比非耦合模拟,耦合模式在主导蔓延方向和火头迁移路径的刻画上更为准确。精度评价结果表明,耦合模式轮廓系数为0.59,MHD为306.3 m,虽在局部区域存在过模拟现象,但总体能够反映林火蔓延的主控机制和空间格局。
      结论 Meso-NH/ForeFire林火–大气耦合模式在复杂山地条件下能够较好地刻画林火蔓延的总体趋势和阶段性特征,适用于我国区域尺度林火行为分析与情景推演。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective Meteorological conditions are among the dominant factors controlling wildfire spread, and the interaction between wind and fire behavior constitutes a key issue in forest fire research. The coupled wildfire–atmosphere model Meso-NH/ForeFire is capable of representing fire–atmosphere interactions through a two-way feedback mechanism; however, its applicability under the complex topographic conditions of China has not yet been fully evaluated.
      Method The “April 13” forest fire in Anze County, Shanxi Province, was selected as the case study. Driven by ERA5 reanalysis data, the Meso-NH/ForeFire coupled model was applied to simulate the wildfire spread process. Simulated near-surface wind fields and fire spread results were evaluated using meteorological station observations and the observed burned area, and comparative analyses were conducted against simulations without fire–atmosphere coupling.
      Result (1) Meso-NH effectively captures the trends in near-surface wind variations, and the simulated wind fields show good overall consistency with observations from meteorological stations. (2) The coupled model simulations indicate that the fire spread is predominantly northwestward under the influence of southeast winds, which is consistent with field observations. (3) Compared to uncoupled simulations, the coupled model provides a more accurate depiction of the dominant fire spread direction and fire head migration paths. Accuracy evaluation results show that the coupled model achieves a Sorensen's Coefficient (SC) of 0.59 and a Mean Hausdorff Distance (MHD) of 306.3 m. Although some localized overestimation is observed, the model generally captures the primary controlling mechanisms and spatial patterns of forest fire spread.
      Conclusion The Meso-NH/ForeFire wildfire–atmosphere coupled model is capable of effectively representing the overall fire spread pattern and its stage-dependent characteristics under complex mountainous terrain. The model shows strong potential for regional-scale wildfire behavior analysis and scenario simulation in China.

       

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