Objective  Predicting the distribution dynamics of ecologically sensitive species Paeonia emodi under climate change is important for providing a methodological reference for maintaining the functions of regional alpine ecosystems.

Method In this study, an integrated MaxEnt and GIS workflow was employed to predict the potential suitability of P. emodi based on 64 filtered occurrence records from the Pan-Himalaya region.

Result (1) The core suitable areas were mainly located in northern Pakistan, northern India, Nepal, Bhutan, and southern Xizang of China. (2) The minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), elevation (Elev), and precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) were main environmental factors affecting its distribution. (3) At broad regional scale, the potential suitable habitat of P. emodi showed a trend of area contraction and reconfiguration toward humid montane high-elevation regions. The centroid of suitable habitat shifted along the Himalayan arc, with an overall tendency toward northern Pakistan and northwestern India.

Conclusion Overall, the potential distribution of Paeonia emodi is primarily governed by elevation and the minimum temperature of the coldest month, followed by the precipitation of the driest month, whereas the contributions of remaining environmental variables are relatively limited. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario of BCC-CSM2-MR model, compared with historical period, the suitable area shows an overall pattern of marked contraction accompanied by spatial redistribution rather than uniform expansion. At the Eurasian scale, the suitable area remains mainly distributed along the Himalaya-Pamir and Central Asian mountain systems, with the most pronounced contraction occurring in low-elevation arid inland regions, whereas humid high-elevation areas influenced by orographic uplift remain relatively stable. Within China, the Hengduan Mountains and southeastern Xizang will remain core region in the future, while the peripheral margins of hot and dry valleys tend to retreat. The overall pattern is characterized by a southeastward shift along the Himalayan arc and an upward migration toward higher elevations.