Objective The Three-North Shelter Forest Program (TNSFP) is China's longest-lasting and largest-scale forestry ecological initiative, representing a paradigm shift from the traditional concept of conquering nature to one of harmonious coexistence between humans and nature. Although the program has substantially improved regional ecosystems and enhanced human well-being, its specific contributions to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) within the project area and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear.
Method Focusing on the TNSFP region during 1985–2022, this study selected fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and five ecosystem services—carbon storage, water yield, soil conservation, wind erosion prevention, and habitat quality—as ecological indicators. Combined with socio-economic data, we constructed panel data models to systematically analyze the relationships between ecosystem services and SDGs and their spatial heterogeneity.
Result (1) From 1985 to 2022, overall SDG performance in the TNSFP region improved significantly, exhibiting a distinct southeast–northwest gradient with pronounced spatial heterogeneity; (2) Synergistic interactions prevailed among the 15 SDG indicators (accounting for 84.76% ~ 87.62%), with relationships fluctuating spatiotemporally; (3) Panel data models revealed significant differences in how ecosystem services relate to SDGs: carbon storage showed significant correlations with 80% of the SDG indicators, with 46.67% of the total indicators exhibiting positive correlations, demonstrating the most extensive associations; water yield was significantly and positively correlated with 40% of the SDG indicators; soil conservation was negatively correlated with clean water and sanitation (SDG 6) but positively correlated with climate action (SDG 13) and life on land (SDG 15); and wind erosion prevention showed synergistic relationships with three SDG indicators. This differentiated correlation pattern suggests that optimizing ecological projects requires precise regulation based on the functional characteristics of different service types.
Conclusion This study demonstrates that the TNSFP is significantly associated with synergistic improvements in SDGs by enhancing ecosystem service supply, indicating that the program plays a positive supporting role in regional sustainable development. These findings provide scientific insights for ecological restoration initiatives in environmentally fragile regions.
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