Climate-driven shifts in potential suitable habitat of Paeonia emodi across the Pan-Himalaya region

Objective For the climate-sensitive plant Paeonia emodi, this study aimed to predict the potential suitable habitat pattern and migration trend across the Pan-Himalaya region under climate change, identify the key environmental limiting factors affecting its distribution, and provide a scientific basis for the conservation and utilization of this species.

Method Based on 64 filtered occurrence records from the Pan-Himalaya region and six environmental variables, the MaxEnt model combined with GIS was used to simulate the potential suitable habitat of P. emodi during the historical period (1970–2000) and under the SSP2-4.5 scenario for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s. Jackknife tests, response curves, suitable habitat area statistics, and centroid migration analysis were further conducted to evaluate the dominant environmental factors and future spatiotemporal dynamics of its potential distribution.

Result (1) The model showed high predictive accuracy, with a mean test AUC of 0.986. (2) The core suitable areas were mainly located in northern Pakistan, northern India, Nepal, Bhutan, and southern Xizang of China. (3) The minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), elevation (Elev), and precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) were major environmental factors affecting its distribution. (4) At a broad regional scale, the potential suitable habitat of P. emodi showed an overall shrinking trend and was redistributed toward humid montane high-elevation regions. The centroid of suitable habitat shifted along the Himalayan arc, with an overall tendency toward northern Pakistan and northwestern India.

Conclusion The potential suitable habitat of P. emodi is highly sensitive to changes in elevation and low-temperature conditions. Future climate warming is likely to cause habitat contraction and concentration toward high-elevation mountain regions. Humid high-elevation areas in the Pan-Himalayan mountains may serve as important future climate refugia for this species, and the distributional marginal regions including southeastern Xizang of China deserve continued conservation attention.