Objective This paper aims to analyze the trend of forest carbon sequestration and the development and change of forestry economy, and to provide reference for relevant management decisions, ecological governance and resource and environment management, as well as to promote the development of green and low-carbon economy in China.
Method Based on the data of 6 forest resource inventory from 1989 to 2018 in China, the comprehensive evaluation model of forest carbon sink and forest economic development, the coupling degree model and the coupling coordination degree model of forest carbon sink and forest economic development were adopted. The coupling degree of forest carbon sink and forest economic development from 1992 to 2018 was analyzed. Stepwise regression and ARIMA model were used to analyze the influencing factors and lagging characteristics of forest carbon sink. Autoregressive and ADF tests were used to predict the coupling degree of forest carbon sink and forest economic development in China from 2019 to 2030. The coupling of forest carbon sequestration and forestry economic development and the characteristics of long-term change in China were also discussed based on above methods.
Result (1) Investment in ecological construction and protection, forestry key ecological projects actually completed investment, gross domestic product GDP and imports of forest products had significant effects on forest carbon storage; the total output value of forestry industry, the forestry key ecological projects actually completed investment, and the export value of forest products had a significant impact on forest carbon sequestration, while the forestry key ecological projects actually completed investment had the greatest impact on the two. (2) It was found that the forestry key ecological projects actually completed investment had a lag of 2 years on forest carbon storage and a lag of 1 year on forest carbon sink. When investing in forest carbon sequestration, the investment should be made in advance, and the management and timing of forest resources should be optimized. (3) From 1992 to 2018, the coupling degree of forest carbon storage, forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy increased gradually. Although there were fluctuations in the middle time, the coupling degree of forest carbon storage and long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.24% annually. The degree of coupling coordination increased from “serious imbalance” in 1992 to “excellent coordination” in 2018. From 1993 to 2018, the coupling degree of forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.63% annually, slightly faster than the coupling degree of forest carbon storage and long-term development of forestry economy. The level of coordination had also risen from level 2 in 1993 to level 10 in 2018. (4) From 2019 to 2030, the coupling coordination degree between forest carbon storage and long-term development of forestry economy, and the coupling coordination degree between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development will both increase. The coupling coordination degree D value of forest carbon storage and forest carbon sink will be close to 1, and the coordination degree will be 10 for a long time. The degree of coupling coordination was also maintained at the level of “excellent coordination” for a long time.
Conclusion Forest has multiple social, economic and ecological benefits, and forest carbon sink is only a kind of benefit output. The long-term coupling analysis of forest carbon sink and forest economic development is the key to multiple benefit analysis. The results show that spillover effect and coevolution effect of forest carbon sink are obvious in China, and the coupling coordination degree between forest carbon sink and forest economic development is gradually increasing from 1992 to 2018. From 2019 to 2030, the coupling coordination degree between forest carbon sequestration and the long-term development of forestry economy will remain at the “high quality coordination” level. Therefore, to improve the level of forest management and maintain the current increase of forest resources is the key to achieve the goal of “double carbon” in China.
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