Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and driving factors of ecosystem service value in the Yellow River Basin

Objective This paper aims to study the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution characteristics and driving factors of ecosystem service value (ESV) in the context of ecological restoration in the Yellow River Basin, and provide theoretical reference for sustainable development.

Method Based on the land use data of the Yellow River Basin from 2001 to 2020, the ESV of the Yellow River Basin was calculated. Spatial autocorrelation and exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis (ESTDA) were used to reveal the dynamic characteristics of spatiotemporal differentiation of ESV in the Yellow River Basin. The spatiotemporal geographic weighted regression (GTWR) model was introduced to explore the driving factors of spatiotemporal differentiation of ESV in the Yellow River Basin.

Result (1) From 2001 to 2020, the ESV of the Yellow River Basin showed an overall upward trend, and the value of regulation services accounted for the largest proportion of ecosystem services. Among different land use types, grassland and forest land provided the highest ecological service value. (2) There was a significant positive correlation in the spatial distribution of ESV in the Yellow River Basin. In most regions, the relative length and curvature of the local spatial autocorrelation index time path were relatively small, and the structure was relatively stable, but the spatial dependence effect was weak. The proportion of negative synergistic growth in the direction of ESV movement was the highest, showing a low-speed growth characteristics. The probability of spatiotemporal aggregation of ESV from 2001 to 2020 exceeded 80%, indicating that the local spatial pattern of ESV in the Yellow River Basin was in a relatively locked state. (3) Among the driving factors of watershed ESV, annual rainfall mainly played a negative role, while annual average temperature and vegetation cover mainly played a positive role, while the impact of population density and nighttime light index was relatively weak.

Conclusion The current situation of ESV growth in the Yellow River Basin is relatively stable and difficult to change in the short term. Natural factors play a dominant role in influencing ESV changes.