Response of net primary productivity of Larix olgensis forest ecosystem to climate change.

Based on the BIOME-BGC model and field-measured productivity data, a modeling study was conducted and tested to estimate the dynamic changes of net primary productivity (NPP) of Larix olgensis forest ecosystem in Wangqing Forestry Bureau, Jilin Province in northeastern China during the period of 1980-2013. The response of NPP to regional climate change and the dynamics of NPP under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios were explored. The results were shown as follows: 1) the model-simulated NPPs were in accordance with the field-measured productivity, suggesting a successful modeling of NPP patterns by the BIOME-BGC model. 2) The mean NPP of L.olgensis was 477.74 g/(m2·a), fluctuating between 286.60 and 566.27 g/(m2·a) during 1980-2013. 3) There was a significant correlation between the NPP of L. olgensis forest ecosystem and annual precipitation. Under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, the NPP would have a positive response to the increase of annual precipitation. The temperature would have a stronger effect than the precipitation. The elevated CO2 would benefit the increase of NPP.