Changes of landscape patterns in Xingkai Lake Nature Reserve, northeastern China

Based on the TM (thematic mapper) images of 2001,2004 and 2007, a 1∶50 000 topographic map and 50 measured point data in 2007, we analyzed the changes of landscape pattern and its driving factors in Xingkai Lake Nature Reserve, northeastern China from 2001 to 2007 using landscape indices. By using a Markov model, we predicted the landscape pattern changes of this area from 2007 to 2016 and tested the accuracy of forecasting. The simulation results of 2007 were not significantly different from the measured ones. From 2001 to 2007, the areas of woodland and unused land suffering from human intervention increased; the degree of fragmentation of meadow landscape was also increasing. The pattern of marsh landscape is becoming simpler and more regular. The water landscape has remained intact with low heterogeneity and takes an absolute and superior position in the Xingkai Lake region. Viewed from the prediction results, the areas of natural wetland and woodland will decrease gradually during the next several years (2010--2016); the area of farmland will increase gradually, while the variation in residential land, unused land and water areas is expected to remain gentle. These changes are mainly result from the wetland developments by human beings, economic driving and natural factors, such as climate changes. 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