Assessment on socio-ecosystem vulnerability in shallow mountain area of Beijing under climate change background
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摘要:目的在气候变化的背景下，社会−生态系统视角下的区域脆弱性评估可以较为全面地识别区域气候风险。在城市中，浅山区具有其特有的气候调节的重要性和气候适应的脆弱性，且社会与生态系统的耦合特征更为明显。作为气候适应的重要环节，气候变化背景下的北京浅山区社会−生态系统脆弱性评估有助于为气候适应策略提供空间上的定量参考。方法本研究采用“危险性−暴露度−敏感性−适应能力”评估框架，构建包含44个指标的指标集，并通过主成分分析法对指标进行降维筛选及权重确定，形成社会−生态系统脆弱性评价指标体系，进而评估北京市浅山区社会−生态系统在当前和未来气候条件下的脆弱性空间分布。结果当前和未来的气候脆弱性均呈现出由中心城区向深山区逐渐降低的趋势，脆弱性程度以中度、重度为主，未来脆弱性整体呈上升趋势。在行政分区上，昌平、顺义、海淀区气候脆弱性较低，房山、丰台、门头沟区较为严重。结论本研究通过评估北京市浅山区社会−生态系统在当前和未来气候条件下的脆弱性空间分布，得到北京浅山区气候适应的重点区域，为浅山区气候适应决策提供依据，并为气候变化背景下区域脆弱性评估提供方法及指标作为参考。Abstract:ObjectiveUnder the background of climate change, regional vulnerability assessment under the perspective of socio-ecosystem can identify regional climate risks more comprehensively. In urban areas, shallow mountain area has their uniqueness because of the importance of climate regulation and the vulnerability of climate adaptation, and the coupling between social system and ecosystem is more obvious. As an important link of climate adaptation, the socio-ecosystem vulnerability assessment under climate change background in Beijing shallow mountain area is helpful to provide quantitative reference for climate adaptation strategies in spatial planning.MethodIn this study, the assessment framework of “risk-exposure-sensitivity-adaptability” was adopted to construct an index set containing 44 indicators. Through the principal component analysis method, dimensionality reduction screening and weight determination of indicators were carried out to form the index system of social-ecosystem vulnerability assessment. Then the spatial distribution of the vulnerability of socio-ecosystem in the shallow mountainous areas of Beijing was evaluated under the present and future climatic conditions.ResultThe current and future climate vulnerability showed a trend of gradually decreasing from the central urban area to the deep mountains, and the degree of vulnerability was mainly moderate and severe, while the overall future vulnerability showed an upward trend. Among administrative zones, the vulnerability of Changping, Shunyi and Haidian districts was at a lower level, and the vulnerability of Fangshan, Fengtai and Mentougou districts was more serious.ConclusionBy evaluating the spatial distribution of the vulnerability of socio-ecological system in the shallow mountainous area of Beijing under current and future climatic conditions, the key areas of the climate adaptation in the shallow mountainous area of Beijing were obtained, which provide the basis for the climate adaptation policy in the shallow mountainous area, and provide the method or index reference for the regional vulnerability assessment under climate change background.
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Keywords:
- climate change /
- climate adaptation /
- vulnerability /
- social-ecosystem /
- shallow mountain area
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图 3 当前浅山区社会生态系统各要素脆弱性分布
Figure 3. Vulnerability distribution of four elements of socio-ecosystem in shallow mountain area
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图 4 浅山区社会生态系统脆弱性分布时空变化
Figure 4. Temporal and spatial changes of vulnerability distribution of socio-ecosystem in shallow mountain area
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图 5 各行政区社会生态系统脆弱性等级面积堆栈图
Figure 5. Area stack diagram of socio-ecosystem vulnerability grade in each administrative region
表 1 浅山区社会−生态系统气候脆弱性评价指标库
Table 1 Assessment index set of socio-ecosystem climate vulnerability
准则层
Criteria layer指标层
Index layer准则层
Criteria layer指标层
Index layer危险性
Hazard年平均气温 Annual mean temperature 暴露度
Exposure degree土地利用强度 Land use intensity 年平均降雨 Annual mean precipitation 道路密度 Road density 年温度差 Annual range of temperature 耕地比例 Proportion of cultivated land area 气温变化率 Temperature change rate 旅游人口比例 Proportion of tourist population 风速 Wind velocity 人口密度 Population density 热舒适度 Thermal comfort 流动人口比例 Proportion of floating population 空气质量指数 Air quality index 距负面因素距离 Distance from negative factor 极端高温（> 30 ℃） Extreme heat（> 30 ℃） 适应能力
Adaptability医疗站点分布 Distribution of medical site 城市热岛强度 Heat island intensity 科研教育机构分布
Distribution of scientific research and education institution湿度 Humidity 政府机构分布 Distribution of government agency 霜冻 Frost frequency 保护区分布 Distribution of nature reserve 敏感性
Sensitivity坡度 Slope degree 卫生支出比例 Proportion of health expenditure 海拔 Altitude 千人拥有医师数 Doctors owned by thousand people 坡向 Slope aspect 卫生机构床位数 Number of beds in health institution 景区分布 Scenic spot distribution 绿化覆盖率 Green coverage 老年人口比例 Elderly population ratio 可达性 Accessibility 儿童人口比例 Children ratio 人均 GDP GDP per capita 妇女人口比例 Women population ratio 旅游收入水平 Tourism income level 农业人口比例 Agricultural population ratio 垃圾清运量 Amount of garbage clean-up 群落结构 Community structure 污水处理能力 Sewage treatment capacity 物种丰富度 Species richness 森林覆盖率 Forest coverage 就诊人数 Number of patient 死亡率 Mortality 
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表 2 脆弱性评价指标主成分分析结果
Table 2 Results of principal component analysis of vulnerability assessment index
项目
Item主成分
Principal component (PC)特征值
Eigenvalue贡献率
Contribution rate累计贡献率
Accumulative of contribution rate标准化权重
Normalized weight危险性
Hazard1 0.99 38.45 38.45 0.46 2 0.98 37.96 76.41 0.45 3 0.18 7.10 83.51 0.08 暴露度
Exposure degree1 0.52 37.89 37.89 0.47 2 0.32 23.42 61.32 0.29 3 0.26 18.93 80.25 0.24 敏感性
Sensitivity1 0.68 25.52 25.52 0.30 2 0.61 22.87 48.38 0.27 3 0.43 16.24 64.62 0.19 4 0.22 8.42 73.03 0.10 5 0.17 6.43 79.46 0.08 6 0.13 4.77 84.23 0.06 适应能力
Adaptability1 0.91 29.08 29.08 0.35 2 0.64 20.58 49.67 0.24 3 0.44 14.07 63.74 0.17 4 0.31 9.85 73.58 0.12 5 0.18 5.60 79.18 0.07 6 0.16 5.09 84.28 0.06
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表 3 浅山区社会−生态系统气候脆弱性面积及占比
Table 3 Area and proportion of socio-ecosystem climate vulnerability in shallow mountain area
脆弱性等级
Vulnerability level1970—2020年
Year 1970−20202040—2060年
Year 2040−2060变化比例
Proportion change/%面积/hm2
Area/ha占比
Proportion/%面积/hm2
Area/ha占比
Proportion/%微度脆弱 Negligible 16 173 4.63 6 891 1.93 − 2.71 轻度脆弱 Light 75 724 21.69 54 941 15.36 − 6.33 中度脆弱 Medium 138 614 39.70 127 327 35.60 − 4.10 重度脆弱 Strong 97 433 27.91 121 913 34.08 6.18 极度脆弱 Extreme 21 215 6.08 46 612 13.03 6.96
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