Objective  The quantitative evaluation of the value of green space ecosystem services in urban areas is an important work basis for land space planning. The prediction of its evolution based on the value measurement is more helpful for the planners to understand and measure the existing ecological stock, future development trend and potential problems within the urban area, so as to plan and respond in advance.

  Method  In order to clarify the impact of evolution of land space utilization on the service value of regional ecosystem in Chengde City, Hebei Province of northern China, this paper combines RS and GIS technology to analyze the evolution characteristics of land use/land cover change (LUCC) space utilization in Chengde City. At the same time, the value equivalent factor per unit area was used to calculate the value of ecosystem services in Chengde City. On this basis, MARKOV model was used in this paper to predict the evolution trend of land use in Chengde City in 2026 and the changes of ecological space stock and ecosystem service value.

  Result  The overall ecosystem service value of Chengde City showed an obvious downward trend. From 1995 to 2015 (totally 5 periods, i.e. 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015), the total values of ecosystem services in Chengde City were 103.851 billion CNY, 103.593 billion CNY, 103.609 billion CNY, 100.971 billion CNY and 99.936 billion CNY, respectively. At the same time, the evolution simulation results showed that the overall service value of Chengde City will still be in a downward trend in 2026, with a value decline of about 997 million CNY.

  Conclusion  The spatial dimension of ecosystem service value in Chengde City presents an obvious patch distribution. The core service value is concentrated in the northwestern and southern forest land area, and the time dimension has a significant function reduction. The core reduction area is concentrated in the edge areas of the built-up areas in cities and counties. This study summarized the evolution of ecological service value and spatial change rule of Chengde City from spatial distribution, time evolution and development prediction, so as to provide basis for the development planning and control strategy of the subsequent land space of Chengde City.