Temporal and spatial dynamic characteristics of forest fire in Zhejiang Province of eastern China based on MODIS satellite hot spot data
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摘要:目的 研究森林火灾时空动态变化特征，有助于掌握森林火灾发生规律及变化趋势，为火险期划分和防火资源的合理分配提供科学依据。方法 本研究基于MODIS卫星火点数据，运用数据统计、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和滑动t检验，对浙江省2001—2016年森林火灾时空分布特征、变化趋势和防火期的变化进行研究。结果 （1）2001—2016年浙江省森林火灾整体呈上升趋势，春季、夏季和冬季是林火发生主要季节。其中春、夏两季森林火灾显著增长，秋、冬两季森林火灾呈先上升后下降的变化趋势。浙江省传统定义火险期的林火数量呈下降趋势，而更多的林火在夏季发生，火险期由11月至翌年4月变为1月19日至9月1日，向夏季偏移和延长。（2）浙江省森林火灾空间分布呈现出由西南向东北递减趋势，其中杭州市、衢州市、丽水市和温州市森林火灾发生频率较高，且在防火期、春季和夏季呈上升趋势。结论 研究建议浙江省加强西南地区及春、夏两季森林火灾监测和防火宣传，适当调整火险期和防火资源时空分配，将有助于抑制浙江省森林火灾的增长趋势。Abstract:Objective Studying the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest fire is beneficial for understanding the trend of forest fire, and can provide a scientific basis for the division of fire risks and the rational allocation of fire management resources.Method Based on MODIS satellite fire point data, the statistics method, Mann-Kendall trend test and sliding t-test were applied to study the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire, the change of fire trend and fire season in Zhejiang Province from 2001 to 2016.Result (1) On the whole, the forest fire in Zhejiang Province increased during 2001−2016. The forest fire mainly occurred in spring, summer and winter. The number of forest fire in spring and summer had a significant growth; however, the forest fire in autumn and winter increased first and then decreased. The number of forest fire occurred during the traditional fire season was getting fewer, and more forest fire occurred in the summer compared with the past. The traditional fire season (November to the coming April) had changed to January 19 th−September 1st. (2) The forest fire declined spatially from southwestern to northeastern Zhejiang, and Hangzhou, Quzhou, Lishui and Wenzhou were fire prone areas and the fire numbers increased during the fire prevention period, spring and summer.Conclusion Our findings suggest that the publicity and education of fire prevention should be enhanced in the southwestern Zhejing Province and in the spring and summer, and properly adjusting the definition of fire season and allocation of fire management resources will help curb the growth trend of forest fire in Zhejiang Province.
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图 2 全年和防火期森林火灾次数
Figure 2. Time number of forest fire in fire prevention period and entire year
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图 3 全年和防火期森林火灾变化趋势图
UF. 标准正态分布线；UB. 反序列的标准正态分布线； z. 标准正态分布统计值；下同。UF， standard normal distribution line； UB， standard normal distribution line of the inverse sequence； z， standard normal distribution statistics； The same below.
Figure 3. Trend of forest fire in fire prevention period and entire year
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图 4 防火期森林火灾t检验
t. t检验统计值； 下同。 t， t test statistics；The same below.
Figure 4. t test for forest fire in fire prevention period
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