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气候变化背景下濒危植物梓叶槭在中国适生分布区预测

黄睿智 于涛 赵辉 张声凯 景洋 李俊清

黄睿智, 于涛, 赵辉, 张声凯, 景洋, 李俊清. 气候变化背景下濒危植物梓叶槭在中国适生分布区预测[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2021, 43(5): 33-43. doi: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200254
引用本文: 黄睿智, 于涛, 赵辉, 张声凯, 景洋, 李俊清. 气候变化背景下濒危植物梓叶槭在中国适生分布区预测[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2021, 43(5): 33-43. doi: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200254
Huang Ruizhi, Yu Tao, Zhao Hui, Zhang Shengkai, Jing Yang, Li Junqing. Prediction of suitable distribution area of the endangered plant Acer catalpifolium under the background of climate change in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2021, 43(5): 33-43. doi: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200254
Citation: Huang Ruizhi, Yu Tao, Zhao Hui, Zhang Shengkai, Jing Yang, Li Junqing. Prediction of suitable distribution area of the endangered plant Acer catalpifolium under the background of climate change in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2021, 43(5): 33-43. doi: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200254

气候变化背景下濒危植物梓叶槭在中国适生分布区预测

doi: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200254
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0503106),国家林业和草原局委托项目(2019073051)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    黄睿智。主要研究方向:珍稀植物迁地保护。Email:1549080873@qq.com 地址:100083北京市海淀区清华东路35号北京林业大学生态与自然保护学院

    责任作者:

    李俊清,教授,博士生导师。主要研究方向:森林生态学。Email:lijq@bjfu.edu.cn 地址:同上

  • 中图分类号: S792.35;S717.2/.7

Prediction of suitable distribution area of the endangered plant Acer catalpifolium under the background of climate change in China

  • 摘要:   目的  分析极小种群濒危植物梓叶槭在中国当代和未来的潜在分布区,揭示未来气候变化条件下梓叶槭的分布动态。  方法  以梓叶槭为研究对象,基于现有的梓叶槭分布位点、气候数据集和海拔数据,利用优化的MaxEnt模型和GIS技术,模拟当前、2050s(2041—2060年)和2090s(2081—2100年)(SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585)气候情景下梓叶槭的分布格局,划分适生等级,采用受试者工作曲线(ROC)下的面积(AUC),评价模拟的精度。以刀切法分析气候变量贡献率,找出制约梓叶槭分布的主导气候变量。基于分布面积比(Na)、生境变化程度(Ne)比较梓叶槭在不同气候条件下的地理分布动态。  结果  梓叶槭主要适生区分布在我国西南地区,9种气候情景下训练集与测试集AUC值均大于0.995,表明模型模拟精度极高。最暖季降雨量、温度季节性变化标准差、海拔贡献率最高,分别为56.1%、18.2%和10.9%。  结论  气候变化背景下梓叶槭将丧失大量高适生区,生境破碎化趋势严重,中高强度排放情景SSP370对梓叶槭潜在分布区影响较小。本研究可为濒危物种梓叶槭的就地与迁地保护提供依据。

     

  • 图  1  梓叶槭分布点位图

    Figure  1.  Location point map of Acer catalpifolium

    图  2  不同参数设置下梓叶槭的MaxEnt模型评估结果

    AUC为受试者工作特征曲线下面积。L 为线性;H 为铰链型;Q 为二次型;P 为乘积型;T 为阈值型。下同。AUC,the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. L, linearity; H, hinge type; Q, quadratic type; P, product type; T, threshold type. The same below.

    Figure  2.  MaxEnt model evaluation results of A. catalpifolium under different parameter settings

    图  3  当前气候下梓叶槭在中国的适宜生境分布

    Figure  3.  Distribution of suitable habitats for A. catalpifolium in China under current climate

    图  4  不同时期不同气候背景下梓叶槭适宜性生境分布

    A ~ D. 2050s SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585气候情景;E ~ H. 2090s SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585气候背景。A−D: SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 climate scenarios in 2050s; E−H: SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 climate backgrounds in 2090s.

    Figure  4.  Distribution of suitable habitats for A. catalpifolium in different periods and climates

    图  5  梓叶槭分布对6个环境因子的响应曲线

    Figure  5.  Response curves of A. catalpifolium distribution to 6 environmental factors

    表  1  环境变量信息

    Table  1.   Environment variable information

    类型
    Type
    变量
    Variable
    描述
    Description
    气候因子
    Climate factor
    Bio2 月均气温日较差
    Daily range of monthly average temperature/℃
    Bio3 等温性
    Isothermality/℃
    Bio4 温度季节性变化标准差
    SD of seasonal temperature change
    Bio7 气温年较差
    Annual temperature range/℃
    Bio11 最冷季均温
    Mean temperature of the coldest quarter/℃
    Bio12 年降水量
    Annual precipitation/mm
    Bio15 降水量变异系数
    Variation coefficient of precipition
    Bio18 最热季降水量
    Precipitation of the warmest quarter/mm
    Bio19 最冷季降水量
    Precipitation of the coldest quarter/mm
    地形因子
    Topographic
    factor
    Alt 海拔
    Altitude/m
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  适生区划分

    Table  2.   Division of suitable distribution area

    生境适宜性指数 Habitat suitability index (HSI)评价等级 Evaluation level 生境适宜性指数 HSI评价等级 Evaluation level
    HSI < 0.2 非适生区 Unsuitable area 0.4 ≤ HSI < 0.6 中适生区 Medium-suitable area
    0.2 ≤ HSI < 0.4 低适合生区 Low-suitable area HSI ≥ 0.6 高适生区 High-suitable area
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  不同参数组合下梓叶槭MaxEnt模型的赤池化信息量准则(AICc)

    Table  3.   Akaike information criteria (AICc) for MaxEnt model of A. catalpifolium under different parameter combinations

    参数组合
    Parameter combination
    不同正则化参数下梓叶槭MaxEnt模型的AICc值
    AICc value of A. catalpifolium MaxEnt model under different regularization parameters
    0.511.522.533.54
    L 1701.19 1773.05 1818.27 1812.36 1806.35 1800.20 1794.03 1787.76
    H 1557.06 1412.83 1334.19 1293.49 1319.24 1278.62 1249.96 1252.36
    L + Q 1465.43 1127.27 1113.02 1108.63 1116.15 1132.10 1154.42 1166.25
    L + H + Q 1869.88 1544.06 1385.27 1195.73 1116.06 1096.02 1098.19 1096.88
    L + H + Q + P 1610.69 1307.60 1134.10 1105.80 1096.47 1119.45 1125.41 1130.05
    L + H + Q + P + T 3615.42 1213.23 1108.74 1103.12 1097.55 1119.45 1125.41 1130.05
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  当代、2050s和2090s梓叶槭在各省高适生区面积

    Table  4.   Contemporary and future areas of A. catalpifolium in each province in 2050s and 2090s km2

    地区 Area当代 Current2050s2090s
    SSP126SSP245SSP370SSP585SSP126SSP245SSP370SSP585
    中国 China 193 339 73 589 109 951 175 007 122 267 74 423 65 586 102 581 90 359
    四川 Sichuan 112 362 53 723 74 792 109 322 80 072 53 011 47 383 65 395 36 302
    贵州 Guizhou 41 161 3 314 11 175 20 910 3 297 2 273 2 481 503
    云南 Yunnan 9 492 2 308 4 113 6 334 2 412 1 475 1 596 1 926 694
    陕西 Shaanxi 10 105 4 098 6 806 15 331 18 769 7 778 3 907 13 821 10 383
    重庆 Chongqing 16 188 3 865 6 014 13 519 5 494 2 288 2 530 503 69
    西藏 Tibet 313 3 455 3 698 3 959 5 348 4 080 5 747 11 598 30 298
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  气候变化下梓叶槭分布动态

    Table  5.   Distribution dynamics of A. catalpifolium

    气候情景
    Climate scenario
    当前与其他时期分布面积比
    Distribution area ratio in current and other periods (Na)
    生境变化程度
    Habitat change extent (Ne)/%
    生境变化趋势
    Habitat change trend
    当代 Current 1 0 不变 No change
    2050s SSP126 1.28 24.9 收缩 Contraction
    2050s SSP245 1.19 19.6 收缩 Contraction
    2050s SSP370 0.97 7.2 扩张 Expansion
    2050s SSP585 1.09 19.1 收缩 Contraction
    2090s SSP126 1.30 27.9 收缩 Contraction
    2090s SSP245 1.34 31.7 收缩 Contraction
    2090s SSP370 1.00 31.6 不变 No change
    2090s SSP585 1.05 55.7 收缩 Contraction
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  主要气候因子对梓叶槭分布的贡献率和重要值

    Table  6.   Contribution rates and important values of major climatic factors to the distribution of A. catalpifolium

    代号 Code环境因子 Environmental factor贡献率 Contribution rate/%重要值 Importance value
    Bio18 最暖季降水量 Precipitation of the warmest quarter 56.1 0.8
    Bio4 温度季节性变化标准差 SD of temperature seasonal change 18.2 1.5
    Alt 海拔 Altitude 10.9 0.8
    Bio19 最冷季降雨量 Precipitation of the coldest quarter 3.8 1.1
    Bio11 最冷季均温 Mean temperature of the coldest quarter 3.6 57.7
    Bio2 月均气温日较差 Daily range of monthly average temperature 2.8 0
    合计 Total 95.4 61.9
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-08-18
  • 修回日期:  2020-10-15
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-05-11
  • 刊出日期:  2021-05-27

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