Objective  The study on the coupling and coordination relationship between ecological environment and industrial development can help planners obtain the coordinated development trend of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, northern China from an ecological perspective, and provide scientific basis for planning and management.

  Method  Based on the MSPA and InVEST models, this study firstly explored the changes of ecological infrastructure, habitat quality and economic development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2017, and then applied the coupling coordination model to comprehensively analyze the coupling coordination of the above three in the region. Finally, the coupling coordination degree of different regions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the next five years was predicted by the gray prediction model.

  Result  (1) The overall ecological infrastructure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was in the low level, and the landscape connectivity was poor. The spatial variation of the habitat quality was significant, with an average habitat quality of 0.450, which was not high. (2) The development of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in the northwestern ecological conservation area was stable, while the secondary industry in Tianjin-Hebei region was in a dominant position. As for the transportation, warehousing and postal industries in the eastern coastal development area and the financial industry in Beijing-Tianjin region, they were well developed. (3) The coupling coordination degree in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was ranked from a mild disorder state to a primary coordination state, the regional variations of the coupling coordination levels were significant. Among them, the southern functional expansion area had the highest coupling coordination degree, while it was lowest in the northwestern ecological conservation area. (4) In the next 5 years, the coupling coordination degree in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will be improved, but the central core functional area will remain on the verge of imbalance, Beijing and the eastern coastal development area will remain in a barely coordinated state, which are key areas need to be optimized in the future. The coupling coordination degree in Tianjin will change from barely coordination to primary coordination, and the northwestern ecological conservation area will change from being on the verge of imbalance to primary coordination, which are the potential areas for coordinated development. The coupling coordination degree of the southern functional expansion area will be transformed into middle-level coordination, which is the fastest development area.

  Conclusion  This study evaluated the coupling and coordination of the ecological infrastructure-habitat quality-industrial development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and predicted the critical areas with the potential for synergistic development. All of the conclusion can provide a basis for the future coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and offer an important reference for ecological construction and industrial development evaluation within other urban agglomerations.