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    肖玲, 姜群鸥, 王美林, 律可心. 京津冀地区生态基础设施−生境质量−产业发展耦合协调性分析与预测[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2021, 43(3): 96-105. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200346
    引用本文: 肖玲, 姜群鸥, 王美林, 律可心. 京津冀地区生态基础设施−生境质量−产业发展耦合协调性分析与预测[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2021, 43(3): 96-105. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200346
    Xiao Ling, Jiang Qun’ou, Wang Meilin, Lü Kexin. Coupling coordination and prediction analysis of ecological infrastructure, habitat quality and industrial development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of northern China[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2021, 43(3): 96-105. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200346
    Citation: Xiao Ling, Jiang Qun’ou, Wang Meilin, Lü Kexin. Coupling coordination and prediction analysis of ecological infrastructure, habitat quality and industrial development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of northern China[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2021, 43(3): 96-105. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200346

    京津冀地区生态基础设施−生境质量−产业发展耦合协调性分析与预测

    Coupling coordination and prediction analysis of ecological infrastructure, habitat quality and industrial development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of northern China

    • 摘要:
        目的  对生态环境与产业发展耦合协调关系进行研究,有助于规划者从生态学角度宏观把握京津冀协同发展趋势,为规划与管理提供科学依据。
        方法  该研究基于MSPA和InVEST模型分析了京津冀地区2000—2017年生态基础设施、生境质量和产业发展变化特征,并采用耦合协调模型对该地区三者的耦合协调性进行综合分析,最后利用灰色预测模型预测京津冀不同区域未来五年耦合协调度。
        结果  (1)京津冀地区生态基础设施水平整体偏低,连通性较差;生境质量空间差异显著,整体生境质量0.450,水平不高;(2)西北部生态涵养区的农林牧渔业发展稳定,津冀工业长期处于主导地位,东部滨海发展区交通运输、仓储和邮政业和京津金融业发展实力较强;(3)京津冀地区耦合协调度主要处于轻度失调到初级协调状态之间,空间差异明显。其中,南部功能拓展区耦合协调度最高,而西北部生态涵养区耦合协调度最低。(4)未来5年京津冀地区耦合协调度均将有所提升,但中部核心功能区仍将处于濒临失调状态,北京和东部滨海发展区仍将处于勉强协调状态,是未来需要优化的重点区域;天津耦合协调度将由勉强协调转变为初级协调,西北部生态涵养区耦合协调度将由濒临失调转变为初级协调,是具有协调发展潜力的区域;南部功能拓展区耦合协调类型将转变为中级协调,是发展速度最快的区域。
        结论  该研究通过评估京津冀区域生态基础设施−生境质量−产业发展的耦合协调性,并分析预测具有协同发展潜力的重点区域,为未来京津冀协同发展提供依据,并为其他城市群范围内生态建设和产业发展评估提供重要参考。

       

      Abstract:
        Objective  The study on the coupling and coordination relationship between ecological environment and industrial development can help planners obtain the coordinated development trend of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, northern China from an ecological perspective, and provide scientific basis for planning and management.
        Method  Based on the MSPA and InVEST models, this study firstly explored the changes of ecological infrastructure, habitat quality and economic development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2017, and then applied the coupling coordination model to comprehensively analyze the coupling coordination of the above three in the region. Finally, the coupling coordination degree of different regions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the next five years was predicted by the gray prediction model.
        Result  (1) The overall ecological infrastructure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was in the low level, and the landscape connectivity was poor. The spatial variation of the habitat quality was significant, with an average habitat quality of 0.450, which was not high. (2) The development of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in the northwestern ecological conservation area was stable, while the secondary industry in Tianjin-Hebei region was in a dominant position. As for the transportation, warehousing and postal industries in the eastern coastal development area and the financial industry in Beijing-Tianjin region, they were well developed. (3) The coupling coordination degree in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was ranked from a mild disorder state to a primary coordination state, the regional variations of the coupling coordination levels were significant. Among them, the southern functional expansion area had the highest coupling coordination degree, while it was lowest in the northwestern ecological conservation area. (4) In the next 5 years, the coupling coordination degree in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will be improved, but the central core functional area will remain on the verge of imbalance, Beijing and the eastern coastal development area will remain in a barely coordinated state, which are key areas need to be optimized in the future. The coupling coordination degree in Tianjin will change from barely coordination to primary coordination, and the northwestern ecological conservation area will change from being on the verge of imbalance to primary coordination, which are the potential areas for coordinated development. The coupling coordination degree of the southern functional expansion area will be transformed into middle-level coordination, which is the fastest development area.
        Conclusion  This study evaluated the coupling and coordination of the ecological infrastructure-habitat quality-industrial development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and predicted the critical areas with the potential for synergistic development. All of the conclusion can provide a basis for the future coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and offer an important reference for ecological construction and industrial development evaluation within other urban agglomerations.

       

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