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    郑永宏, 张芸毓, 王丹, 于佳禾, 汪嘉霖. 庐山日本柳杉径向生长对气候响应的边际效应[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2021, 43(7): 63-69. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200372
    引用本文: 郑永宏, 张芸毓, 王丹, 于佳禾, 汪嘉霖. 庐山日本柳杉径向生长对气候响应的边际效应[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2021, 43(7): 63-69. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200372
    Zheng Yonghong, Zhang Yunyu, Wang Dan, Yu Jiahe, Wang Jialin. Marginal effect of radial growth of Cryptomeria japonica to climate in Lushan Mountain of southwestern China[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2021, 43(7): 63-69. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200372
    Citation: Zheng Yonghong, Zhang Yunyu, Wang Dan, Yu Jiahe, Wang Jialin. Marginal effect of radial growth of Cryptomeria japonica to climate in Lushan Mountain of southwestern China[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2021, 43(7): 63-69. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200372

    庐山日本柳杉径向生长对气候响应的边际效应

    Marginal effect of radial growth of Cryptomeria japonica to climate in Lushan Mountain of southwestern China

    • 摘要:
        目的  深入认知树轮−气候要素之间的关系,揭示树木径向生长的主要限制性因素的相对贡献率及边际效应,以提升树轮在树轮生态学、树轮气候学研究中的应用价值。
        方法  基于庐山地区日本柳杉树轮宽度资料和庐山气象站气象资料,采用树轮气候学方法研制树轮宽度年表,基于相关分析方法初步识别树木径向生长的主要限制性因素,进而利用增强回归树分析方法揭示了庐山日本柳杉径向生长的主要影响因素相对贡献及边际效应。
        结果  正向影响庐山日本柳杉径向生长的因素按重要程度从大到小依次为当年1—3月平均最低气温(20.66%)、上年2—11月相对湿度(15.4%)、当年2—3月平均水汽压(9.47%),负向影响庐山日本柳杉径向生长的因素按重要程度从大到小依次为上年11月日照时数(20.81%)、上年5月最大日降水量(20.54%)、当年7月平均气温(13.11%);树轮−气候之间的关系在阈值范围之内具有较好的线性关系,阈值范围外则不具有线性关系。
        结论  庐山日本柳杉径向生长受多种气候要素的综合影响,任一要素的影响均不是简单的线性关系,均存在明显的阈值效应。在分析树木径向生长对气候要素响应及进行树轮气候重建时,对边际效应问题应予以重视,以增强树轮−气候间关系的可信度及气候重建的可靠性。

       

      Abstract:
        Objective  This paper aims to further understand the relationship between tree radial growth and climatic factors, reveal the relative importance as well as marginal effect of main driving climatic factors of tree radial growth, so as to enhance the application value of tree ring in the research of dendroecology and dendroclimatology.
        Method  Based on the tree ring width data of Cryptomeria japonica in Lushan Mountain area and the meteorological data of Lushan Mountain meteorological station, the tree ring width chronology was developed by the dendroclimatology method. The main driving climatic factors of tree radial growth were initially identified based on the correlation analysis method, and then the relative importance and marginal effect of the main influencing factors on Cryptomeria japonica radial growth were revealed by utilizing boosted regression tree (BRT) method.
        Result  The research results showed that the climatic factors that positively affected the radial growth of Cryptomeria japonica in Lushan Mountain, in descending order of importance, were the average minimum temperature from January to March of the current year (20.66%), the relative humidity from February to November of the previous year (15.4%), and the average vapor pressure from February to March of the current year (9.47%); the climatic factors that negatively affected the radial growth of Cryptomeria japonica in Lushan Mountain, in descending order of importance, were the sunshine hours in November of the previous year (20.81%), the maximum daily precipitation in the May of the previous year (20.54%) and the average temperature in July of the current year (13.11%). The relationship between tree ring and climate had a good linear relationship within the threshold range, and there was no linear relationship outside the threshold range.
        Conclusion  The radial growth of Cryptomeria japonica in Lushan Mountain is affected by many climatic factors, and the influence of each factor has obvious marginal effect. It is important to pay close attention to the problem of marginal effects when performing tree ring based climate reconstruction, which will enhance the reliability of tree ring climate relationship and climate reconstruction.

       

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