Objective  The research on the impact of land use change and ecosystem service value under the background of global warming and increasing human vitality has become a hot topic in the current ecosystem change research. This paper aims to reveal the spatio-temporal variation characteristics and trends of ecosystem service value and facilitate to the traditional spatial statistical methods such as hot spot analysis to describe the insignificant fluctuation in ecosystem service value (ESV).

  Method  In this study, pixel based tracking analysis, trend analysis and other methods were combined to test the impact of LUCC (land use and land cover change) on ESV in the Bosten Lake Watershed.

  Result  (1) Desert was the predominant land use type in the Bosten Lake Watershed, followed by meadow and bare land. During the study period, the area of paddy field, desert, meadow, wetland, water area, dry land and construction land showed increasing trend. Grassland, shrubland, bare land, coniferous, broadleaf, glacier snow showed decreasing trend, from 2005–2010, the dynamic level of comprehensive land use was most significant. (2) From 2000 to 2018, the stable type accounted for 60.43% of the total area in the Bosten Lake Watershed, and the moderate change type, regression type and intense change type were mainly distributed in the oasis areas owing to intense human activities. (3) From 2000 to 2018, the ESV of the Bosten Lake Watershed showed a fluctuating growth trend. The ESV of the watershed was mainly composed of meadows, water area and wetlands. Water area, dry land, meadow and grassland were the main contributors and sensitive factors of ESV changes in the watershed, besides, grassland was negative contributing factor. (4) The ESV of the Bosten Lake Watershed was higher in the northwest than in the southeast, with high values (Bosten Lake) dotted in the low-value areas. The areas of significant increasing and decreasing trends were mainly distributed in the wetland around Bosten Lake. ESV in the northern part of the basin showed a slight increasing trend. The trajectory level and ESV change trend of the oasis area from the city to the edge of the oasis as ranked: medium change type (slightly decreased ESV)-gradient type (slightly increased ESV)-moderate variation type (slightly decreased ESV) ring-shaped interphase structure.

  Conclusion  This study demonstrates that the spatial difference of land use trajectory level and ESV change trend in the southern part are higher than in the northern part, combination of land use tracking analysis and the ESV trend change reveal the current status of land use conflicts and model distribution of the ESV spatiotemporal changes in oasis cities, provides a reference for land use management and ecological environment protection in the Bosten Lake Watershed.