Response of invasive area of Ageratina adenophora to future climate change based on climate and species diffusion
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摘要:目的 破坏草是中国西南地区危害最为严重的入侵物种之一，每年在当地造成巨额的经济损失。扩散能力与入侵物种的危害性有关，也是决定其分布范围的重要因素，但在目前物种潜在分布和潜在入侵区域的研究中却常常被忽略。方法 本研究旨在基于物种扩散量化气候变化背景下破坏草的入侵区域，应用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型对破坏草潜在适宜区进行预测，在得出其2050年和2070年中等温室气体排放情景（SSPs45）下适宜分布区后，基于当前分布使用细胞自动机在适宜区内模拟了破坏草的扩散，预测了2050年和2070年一般气候排放情景下破坏草的潜在入侵区域。结果 气温季节性变动系数、最冷月最低气温、最干季降水量、年降水量、最冷季降水量是影响破坏草分布的重要气候因子。破坏草的适宜分布区将从当前的79.68 × 104 km2增长为2050年的120.26 × 104 km2，之后于2070年有所缩小，但面积仍达111.97 × 104 km2。与当前破坏草分布地区相比，2050 SSPs45情景下破坏草潜在入侵区域将增加至88.27 × 104 km2，到2070年则将增加至95.35 × 104 km2。结论 破坏草潜在入侵区域受到扩散速度限制，始终小于其适宜分布区，但随着气候变化逐步增加。受全球气候变化影响，未来四川、贵州、广西等省份应当采取进一步措施以控制破坏草的蔓延。预测结果一定程度反映了入侵物种的时空格局，可以为入侵物种防控提供科学依据。Abstract:Objective Ageratina adenophora is one of the most serious invasive species in southwestern China, causing huge economic losses every year. The diffusion ability is related to the harmfulness of invasive species, and it is also an important factor to determine their distribution area, and is often ignored in the study of potential distribution and potential invasive area.Method To quantify the potential invasive area of A. adenophora under the background of climate change based on species diffusion, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm was used to predict the potential suitable area of A. adenophora. After obtaining the suitable distribution area under the general climate emission scenarios in 2050 and 2070, based on the current distribution, cellular automata was used to simulate the diffusion of A. adenophora in the suitable area, and the potential invasive area of A. adenophora under the general greenhouse gases emission scenarios in 2050 and 2070 was predicted.Result The temperature seasonality, minimum temperature of the coldest month, precipitation in the driest season, annual precipitation and the precipitation of the coldest season are important climatic factors affecting the distribution of A. adenophora. The suitable distribution area of A. adenophora will increase from 79.68 × 104 km2 to 120.26 × 104 km2 in 2050, and then decrease to 111.97 × 104 km2 in 2070. Compared with the current distribution area of A. adenophora, its potential invasive area will increase to 88.27 × 104 km2 in 2050 SSPs45 scenario and 95.35 × 104 km2 in 2070.Conclusion The potential invasive area of A. adenophora is limited by the diffusion rate, which is always smaller than its suitable distribution area, but it gradually increases with climate change. Due to the impact of global climate change, Sichuan, Guizhou of southwestern China, Guangxi of southern China and other provinces should take further measures to control the spread of A. adenophora in the future. The prediction results reflect the spatial-temporal pattern of invasive species to a certain extent, and can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of invasive species.
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《北京林业大学学报》（原名《北京林学院学报》）创刊于1979年，由教育部主管、北京林业大学主办，国内外公开发行。历任主编分别为我国6位著名林学家汪振儒、沈国舫、关毓秀、王九龄、贺庆棠、尹伟伦。
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为保持学科特色，《北京林业大学学报》重点报道以林木遗传育种学、森林培育学、森林经理学、森林生态学、树木生理学、森林土壤学、森林植物学、森林保护学、自然保护区学、园林植物与观赏园艺、风景园林、水土保持与荒漠化防治、森林工程、木材科学与技术、林产化学加工工程、其他学科在林学上的应用等方面的论文。
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图 2 破坏草样点分布图及当前分布区
Figure 2. Sample point distribution map and current distribution area of A. denophora
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图 1 不同时期破坏草适宜分布区
Figure 1. Suitable distribution area of A. adenophora in different periods
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图 3 不同时期破坏草潜在入侵区域及其最适分布区
Figure 3. Potential invasive area and optimum distribution area of A. adenophora in different periods
表 1 破坏草适宜分布的主导因子贡献率及变化范围
Table 1 Contribution rate and variation range of dominant factors for suitable distribution of Ageratina adenophora
气候因子
Climate
factor贡献率
Contribution
rate/%最适分布范围
Optimum
distribution range适宜分布范围
Suitable
distribution rangebio4 38.6 299.2 ~ 707.9 273.9 ~ 847.6 bio6 22.7 1.5 ~ 12.2 −7.5 ~ 21.4 bio17 14.0 14 ~ 95 10 ~ 184 bio12 12.0 628 ~ 1 839 550 ~ 2 930 bio19 6.3 15 ~ 95 10 ~ 204 注：bio4. 气温季节性变动系数；bio6. 最冷月最低气温（℃）；bio17. 最干季降水量（mm）；bio12.年降水量（mm）；bio19.最冷季降水量（mm）。Notes: bio4, seasonal variation coefficient of temperature; bio6, Min. temperature of the coldest month (℃); bio17, precipitation of the driest quarter (mm); bio12, annual precipitation (mm); bio19, precipitation of the coldest quarter (mm). 
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