Objective  The landscape ecological conditions are closely related to land use changes, and the clarification and prediction of spatial and temporal landscape ecological evolution characteristics of basin based on land use is important for its ecological conservation.

  Method  We took the Naolihe Basin of northeastern China as the study area and constructed a landscape ecological estimation model in terms of three aspects: physiology, functionality and sustainability to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the landscape ecology from 2010 to 2020. Based on the CLUE-S model, we simulated the land use pattern of the study area under three scenarios in 2040 and predicted the landscape ecological status under different scenarios.

  Result  (1) From 2010 to 2020, the landscape ecological index of the study area was at a medium level and showed a decreasing trend, and the spatial distribution was “high in the east and low in the west”, the nature of land use patches was a key factor in determining the landscape ecology of the study area, and the change of landscape ecological level was closely related to the change of the land use pattern. (2) Under the simulation scenarios of the study area in 2040, the area of cultivated land and grassland decreased, and the outer banks of the Waiqixing River and the periphery of the original settlements being the main areas for the expansion of construction land. (3) The decline of the landscape ecological index in the study area was mitigated only under the ecological conservation scenario, the landscape ecological index of the areas that were highly affected by the expansion of agricultural activities and construction land in the trend development and accelerated development scenarios, the expansion of some areas with low values of landscape ecological index in the ecological conservation scenario was mitigated, but there was also the problem that the landscape ecological was not improved by the spreading development of construction land.

  Conclusion  Changes in land use patterns due to agricultural activities and urbanization development will continue to be the main reason for the decline in the landscape ecological level of the basin, the formulation of scientific and targeted control and compensation strategies for various ecological types of land is an effective means to improve its landscape ecological level. The results could provide reference for the management and sustainable development of landscape ecological resources in the basin.