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    周火艳, 赵晓迪. 乌兰布和沙漠沙蒿灌丛的潜在适宜区及其自然驱动力[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2023, 45(2): 96-107. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20220160
    引用本文: 周火艳, 赵晓迪. 乌兰布和沙漠沙蒿灌丛的潜在适宜区及其自然驱动力[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2023, 45(2): 96-107. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20220160
    Zhou Huoyan, Zhao Xiaodi. Potential suitable area and natural driving force of Artemisia desertorum shrub in Ulanbuh Desert of northwestern China[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2023, 45(2): 96-107. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20220160
    Citation: Zhou Huoyan, Zhao Xiaodi. Potential suitable area and natural driving force of Artemisia desertorum shrub in Ulanbuh Desert of northwestern China[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2023, 45(2): 96-107. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20220160

    乌兰布和沙漠沙蒿灌丛的潜在适宜区及其自然驱动力

    Potential suitable area and natural driving force of Artemisia desertorum shrub in Ulanbuh Desert of northwestern China

    • 摘要:
        目的  研究典型荒漠物种地理分布变化及驱动因素,可为恢复荒漠植被提供科学依据。
        方法  本文以乌兰布和沙漠优势植物沙蒿为研究对象,通过实地调查及遥感影像识别的方法收集整理沙蒿灌丛的地理分布数据,结合29个环境变量数据,筛选得到最优物种分布模型。采用最优模型,基于NorESM1-M气候模式,预测了在两种排放情景下、不同时期乌兰布和沙漠沙蒿灌丛的潜在适宜区,分析得到其适宜分布的主要环境因子阈值范围;预测未来气候变化对沙蒿灌丛潜在地理分布的影响,并划分适宜分布区。
        结果  沙蒿灌丛地理分布的决定因子为年均温,适宜区间为7.4 ~ 9.0 ℃,最适值为8.4 ℃。主要自然驱动因子是坡度及最湿润季节平均温度,温度因子相对于降雨量因子更为重要。在2050s RCP2.6排放模式下,沙蒿灌丛的质心将向西南方向迁移4.55 km,随着CO2排放强度增强,将转向北迁移1.21 km,到2070s,在RCP2.6排放模式下,沙蒿灌丛的质心将向东北方向迁移2.60 km,随着CO2排放强度增强,将继续向北迁移0.83 km。随着时间推移及气候变暖,沙蒿适宜生境不断破碎化且适宜生境面积逐渐缩减,更多的适宜生境退化为低适宜或不适宜生境。
        结论  针对沙蒿适宜区将缩减的变化趋势,应密切关注乌兰布和沙漠气候变化对沙蒿灌丛分布区的影响,开展相应生态恢复研究。当前高、中适宜区应积极种植沙蒿,不适宜区应在经济技术可行的前提下积极发展其他本土植被,或通过改善沙地质地等方式提高其适宜性。在未来气候变暖的趋势下,应加强生态监测,根据分布区变化情况采取措施积极应对,以提高区域植被覆盖率,形成良性循环,最终达到恢复荒漠植被、提高生态系统稳定性、发挥其生态功能的目的。

       

      Abstract:
        Objective  By studying the changes of geographical distribution of typical desert species and their driving factors, we can provide scientific basis for the restoration of desert vegetation.
        Method  In this paper, Artemisia desertorum, the dominant plant in Ulanbuh Desert of northwestern China, was taken as the research object. The geographical distribution data of A. desertorum were collected and sorted out through field investigation and remote sensing image recognition. Combined with 29 environmental variables, the optimal species distribution model was obtained, and the optimal model was adopted. Based on the Noresm1-M climate model, the potential distribution of A. desertorum in different periods under two emission scenarios was predicted, and the threshold range of major environmental factors for its suitable distribution was analyzed, and the impact of future climate change on the potential geographical distribution of A. desertorum shrub was predicted, and it was divided into suitable distribution areas.
        Result  The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was the best one to simulate the geographical distribution of A. desertorum shrub. The annual average temperature was the determining factor of the geographical distribution of A. desertorum shrub. The suitable range of annual average temperature was 7.4−9.0 ℃, and the threshold was 8.4 ℃. The main natural driving factors were slope and average temperature in the wettest season, and temperature was more important than rainfall. In the 2050s, under RCP2.6 emission mode, the centroid of A. desertorum shrub will migrate 4.55 km to the southwest, and with the increase of CO2 emission intensity, it will migrate 1.21 km northward. By the 2070s, the centroid of A. desertorum shrub will migrate 2.60 km to northeast under the RCP2.6 emission mode. With the increase of CO2 emission intensity, it will turn to migrate 0.83 km northward. With the passage of time and the warming of climate, the suitable habitat of A. desertorum was continuously fragmented and the suitable habitat area was gradually reduced, and more suitable habitat was degraded to low or unsuitable habitat.
        Conclusion  With the shrink of A. desertorum’s most suitable area, the impact of climate change in Ulanbuh Desert on the distribution area of A. desertorum shrub should be closely observed, and the corresponding ecological restoration research should be carried out. At present, the high and moderate suitable areas should be actively planted with A. desertorum, and the unsuitable areas should actively develop other local vegetation under the premise of economic and technological feasibility, or improve their suitability by improving the sandy geology. Under the trend of future climate warming, ecological monitoring should be strengthened, and measures should be taken to actively respond to the changes in the distribution area, so as to improve the regional vegetation coverage and form a virtuous cycle, and finally achieve the goal of restoring desert vegetation, improving the stability of the ecosystem and giving full play to its ecological functions.

       

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