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    杉木人工林碳汇木材多功能经营的最优轮伐期

    Optimal rotation period of carbon sequestration wood multifunctional management in Chinese fir plantation

    • 摘要:
        目的  探讨不同条件下杉木人工林碳汇木材多功能经营的最优轮伐期及收益的变化,为杉木人工林多功能经营和决策提供科学依据。
        方法  以江西省崇义县杉木人工林为研究对象,基于31块固定样地的多期调查数据,以Faustmann-Hartman模型为基础,设计了3种模拟情景,情景1只考虑木材收益,情景2和3分别在情景1的基础上依次纳入地上生物量碳汇收益和死亡有机质碳汇收益,不同情景分析了不同碳价格、利率和立地质量对杉木人工林的最优轮伐期和林地期望值的影响。
        结果  基准条件下(地位指数15 m、利率5%和碳价格77 元/t),林地期望值随着林分年龄的增加表现为先增加后减小,情景1和情景2的最优轮伐期均为21年,情景3为20年,最优轮伐期下情景2和3的林地期望值对比情景1分别增加了23%和35%。随着碳价格的增加,最优轮伐期和林地期望值分别呈现缩短和增加的趋势;同一碳价格下,3种情景的最优轮伐期最多相差达4年,且随着碳价格的增加,最优轮伐期的差异也在逐渐增大。随着利率的增加,最优轮伐期和林地期望值均呈现减小趋势;当利率增至7%时,林地期望值大幅降至10%以下,情景1甚至出现了负数。随着地位指数的增加,3种情景下林地期望值均显著增加,最优轮伐期则逐渐缩短。
        结论  当前杉木经营的环境下,碳汇收益的增加对最优轮伐期的影响不明显,但能显著增加林地期望值,因此有利于增强经营者从事人工林多功能经营的积极性。碳价格、利率和立地质量可显著影响最优轮伐期和林地期望值。

       

      Abstract:
        Objective  The paper aims to analyze the change of optimal rotation and benefits under different conditions in consideration of carbon sequestration and timber for Chinese fir plantation, and provide a scientific basis for multi-functional management and decision.
        Method  This study focused on Chinese fir plantation in Chongyi County and conducted in remeasurement data of 31 permanent plots, Jiangxi Province of eastern China. Based on Faustmann-Hartman model, three different scenarios were designed in this study. Scenario 1 only considered timber benefits. Scenario 2 added additional aboveground biomass pool, and Scenario 3 further considered the impact of dead organic matter pool. For each scenario, the effects of different carbon prices, rates and site index on the optimal rotation and land expected value were analyzed.
        Result  Under the baseline condition (carbon price: 77 CNY/t; rate: 5%; site index: 15 m), the land expected value showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing with the increasing age. The optimal rotation for scenario 1 and 2 was 21 years, and for scenario was 20 years. Compared with scenario 1, a 23% increase of the land expected value was found for scenario 2 and a 35% increase for scenario 3. With the carbon price increasing, the optimal rotation decreased and the land expected value increased. For the same carbon price, the difference of optimal rotation among three scenarios was up to 4 years, and the difference increased with carbon price increased. With the rate increasing, the optimal rotation and land expected value showed a decreasing trend. When rate was 7%, the land expected value turned to be down to less than 10% for all three scenarios and negative land expected value was found for scenario 1. With the site index increased, the optimal rotation decreased and the land expected value increased.
        Conclusion  Under the present Chinese fir management environment, benefits of carbon sequestration do not have a significant effect on optimal rotation. However, an impact on land expected value exists. It is beneficial to enhance the enthusiasm of multi-functional management for Chinese fir plantation. Carbon price, rate and site quality can significantly affect the optimal rotation and land expected value.

       

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