Spatio-temporal response of ecosystem services to urban expansion in Jinan metropolitan area based on GTWR
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摘要:
目的 随着我国城镇化发展进入到以中心城市引领都市圈、城市群的发展阶段，如何促进都市圈城镇化与生态环境协调发展成为高质量城镇发展的重要议题。生态系统服务价值对城市扩张的时空响应研究有助于把脉城市发展与生态系统服务的时空演进特征，推动城市与生态系统的协同发展，助力可持续规划以及建设策略的拟定与实施。 方法 本文以济南都市圈为研究对象，基于城镇扩展指数的计算定量描述各城市扩张的时空特征，采用生态系统服务当量因子法多角度地刻画研究区生态系统服务的时空分异特征并分析生态系统权衡与协同效应，在此基础上，基于时空地理加权回归模型（GTWR）探究城市扩张对生态系统服务功能变化的驱动方向与驱动强度。 结果 研究结果表明：（1）1980—2020年间济南都市圈内城市扩张显著，具有时序阶段性与区域分异性两方面特征，城市空间扩展速率与强度由高到低依次为小城市、大城市、特大城市、中等城市；（2）都市圈内整体生态服务价值量呈逐年下降趋势，黄河干流、东平湖及周边区域与鲁中山区等地区是重要的生态系统服务价值量高值聚集区，都市圈内协同关系占比略低于权衡关系，其中特大城市协同关系占比最高；（3）济南都市圈内城市扩张对生态系统服务价值整体具有负面影响，随着时间的推进，影响强度有所下降。城市扩张对各亚类生态系统服务功能的影响作用具有显著差异，对供给服务与支持服务价值量变化具有负面影响，其中对供给服务变化的驱动强度不断增强，对调节服务价值量变化具有正向作用且影响力整体变化不大，对文化服务价值量变化的影响具有两面性，在不同地区的驱动方向与强度差异性较大。 结论 本研究明确了研究期限内济南都市圈中不同等级城市空间扩展的时空分异规律以及生态系统服务逐渐劣化的发展状态，所构建的时空地理加权回归模型（GTWR）在空间层面上量化了城市扩张对生态系统服务总量及各亚类变化量的不同驱动特征与驱动强度，研究成果可为都市圈高质量可持续发展提供决策依据。 Abstract:Objective China’s urbanization development has entered a stage where the central cities lead the development of metropolitan areas and city agglomerations. How to promote the harmonious development of urbanization and the ecological environment in urban areas has become an important issue for high-quality urban development. Research about the spatio-temporal response of ecosystem services to urban expansion helps to characterize the spatial and temporal evolution of urban development and ecosystem services, promote the synergistic development of cities and ecosystems, and help formulate and implement sustainable planning strategies. Method Taking Jinan metropolitan area as the target area, we studied the spatial and temporal characteristics of each city’s expansion based on the Urban Expansion Index calculation, evaluated the Ecosystem Service Value based on per unit area, and analyzed the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of ecosystem services. Furthermore, we studied the spatio-temporal response of ecosystem services to urban expansion of the Jinan metropolitan based on GTWR. Result The results showed that: (1) From 1980 to 2020, urban expansion of the Jinan Metropolitan Area was characterized by time series and regional differentiation. The urban spatial expansion rate and intensity are sorted from high to low, small cities, large cities, megacities, and medium-sized cities. (2) The ecosystem services of the metropolitan area are decreasing year by year. The mainstream of the Yellow River and floodplain, Dongping Lake and its surrounding areas, and mountainous areas in central Shandong are important areas with high value of ecosystem services. The proportion of synergistic relationships in metropolitan areas is slightly lower than that of trade-off relationships, with megacities accounting for the highest proportion. (3) Urban expansion in the Jinan metropolitan area has a negative impact on ecosystem services, while the intensity of negative effects decreased year by year. The impact of urban expansion on the functions of ecosystem services of different subcategories was significantly different. Conclusion We clarified the distribution pattern of spatio-temporal variation of urban expansion of different cities in the Jinan metropolitan area, and further analyzed the development state of gradual deterioration of ecosystem services during the study period. Based on the GTWR model, we quantified the different driving characteristics of urban expansion on ecosystem services at the spatial level. The results can provide a decision-making basis for the high-quality sustainable development of metropolitan areas. -
图 2 1980—2020年济南都市圈城镇用地扩张过程
Figure 2. Urban expansion process of Jinan metropolitan area during 1980−2020
图 3 济南都市圈城镇用地扩张区域流转用地构成
Figure 3. Composition of transferred land in urban expansion area of Jinan metropolitan area
图 4 1980—2020年济南都市圈生态系统价值量分布及变化
Figure 4. Distribution and variation of Ecosystem Service Values of Jinan metropolitan area from 1980 to 2020
图 5 济南都市圈及各城市生态系统服务价值量变化过程
Figure 5. ESV Change process of 6 cities and Jinan metropolitan area
图 6 济南都市圈生态系统服务价值变化率
Figure 6. Change rate of Ecosystem Service Values in Jinan metropolitan area
图 7 不同等级城市生态系统服务权衡与协同关系
Figure 7. Tradeoffs and synergies of ecosystem services of multiple levels cities
图 8 济南都市圈城镇扩张强度对生态系统服务价值时空响应
Figure 8. Spatiotemporal response of ESV to urban expansion intensity index （I） in Jinan metropolitan area
表 1 济南都市圈城市基本情况
Table 1. Summary of selected cities
城市
City常住人口
Permanent resident population2020年国民生产总值/亿元
GDP in 2020/108 CNY行政区面积
Administrative area/km2济南 Jinan 920.2 × 104 10 140.91 10 220 聊城 Liaocheng 650.0 × 104 2 316.84 8 628 泰安 Taian 547.8 × 104 2 766.50 7 762 淄博 Zibo 470.4 × 104 3 673.50 5 965 德州 Dezhou 560.0 × 104 3 078.99 10 356 邹平 Zouping 77.4 × 104 558.80 1 252 
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表 2 济南都市圈生态系统服务价值当量因子表 元/（hm2·a）
Table 2. Equivalent factor table of ecosystem service value of Jinan metropolitan area
CNY/(ha·year) 土地利用类型
Land use type供给服务
Supply services调节服务
Regulation services支持服务
Support services文化服务
Cultural services一级分类 二级分类 FP RMP WRS GR CR EP HR SC NCM MB ALS 农田
Farmland旱地
Dry farmland992.10 466.87 23.32 782.01 420.18 116.72 315.14 1 202.19 140.06 151.73 70.03 水田
Paddy farmland1 587.36 105.05 −3 069.67 1 295.56 665.29 198.42 3 174.71 11.67 221.76 245.11 105.05 林地
Forestland有林地、疏林地、其他林地
Forest land, sparse forest land,
and other forest land319.03 735.32 381.27 2 419.94 7 236.49 2 104.81 4 509.18 2 945.17 225.65 2 680.61 1 174.96 灌木林
Shrubbery221.76 501.88 256.78 1 645.71 4 937.15 1 493.98 3 910.04 2 007.54 151.73 1 832.46 805.35 草地
Grassland高覆盖度草地
High coverage grassland256.78 385.17 210.09 1 330.58 3 524.87 1 167.18 2 579.46 1 622.37 128.39 1 482.31 653.61 中、低覆盖度草地
Middle and low coverage grassland116.72 163.40 93.37 595.26 1 564.01 513.55 1 143.83 723.65 58.36 653.61 291.79 水域
Water area河渠、湖泊、水库坑塘 Rivers, lakes, reservoirs and ponds 933.74 268.45 9 675.88 898.73 2 672.83 6 477.82 119 331.94 1 085.47 81.70 2 976.29 2 205.96 滩地、滩涂
Beach, mudflat595.26 583.58 3 022.98 2 217.63 4 201.83 4 201.83 28 280.65 2 696.17 210.09 9 185.66 5 520.73 未利用地
Unused area沙地、戈壁、盐碱地、其他用地
Sandy land, Gobi, Alkali soil, other land11.67 35.02 23.34 128.39 116.72 361.82 245.11 151.73 11.67 140.06 58.36 沼泽地
Swampy land595.26 583.58 3 022.98 231.90 4 201.83 4 201.83 28 280.65 2 696.17 210.09 9 185.66 2 205.96 裸土地、裸岩石质地 Bare land, bare rocky land 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.34 0.00 116.72 35.02 23.34 0.00 23.34 11.67 注：1.供给服务：食物生产、原材料生产、水资源供给；2.调节服务：气体调节、气候调节、净化环境、水文调节；3.支持服务：土壤保持、维持养分循环、维持生物多样性；4. 文化服务：美学景观 1. Supply service: FP (Food production), RMP (Raw material production), WRS (Water resource supply); 2. Regulation service: GR (Gas regulation), CR (Climate regulation), EP (Environment purification), HR (Hydrological regulation); 3. Support services: SC (Soil conservation), NCM (Nutrients cycle maintenance), MB (Maintaining biodiversity); 4. Cultural services: ALS (Aesthetic landscape supply)
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表 3 济南都市圈城市单元城镇扩展强度指数与扩展差异指数
Table 3. Urban expansion intensity index and differentiation index in Jinan metropolitan area
行政单元
Administrative unit城镇扩展强度指数
Urban expansion intensity index (I)城镇扩展差异指数
Urban expansion differentiation index (E)1980—1990 1990—2000 2000—2010 2010—2020 1980—1990 1990—2000 2000—2010 2010—2020 1980—2020 济南 Jinan 0.007 0.099 0.523 0.097 0.422 1.360 1.061 0.799 1.071 聊城 Liaocheng 0.008 0.044 0.306 0.069 0.941 1.268 1.325 1.054 1.375 泰安 Taian 0.006 0.048 0.322 0.065 0.618 1.127 1.183 0.907 1.130 淄博 Zibo 0.046 0.085 0.426 0.041 1.603 0.645 0.583 0.323 0.541 德州 Dezhou 0.012 0.029 0.222 0.124 1.340 0.709 0.947 2.312 1.091 邹平 Zouping 0.008 0.039 0.679 0.162 1.298 1.336 3.504 1.377 3.572 济南都市圈
Jinan metropolitan0.014 0.059 0.366 0.086 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 标准差系数
Standard deviation coefficient0.964 0.444 0.369 0.434 0.402 0.271 0.665 0.546 0.667
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表 4 OLS、GWR、GTWR模型拟合结果对比
Table 4. Model fitting results comparison of OLS, GWR, GTWR
类别 Type R2 RSS OLS GWR GTWR OLS GWR GTWR 供给服务 Supply services 0.204 0.247 0.951 0.596 0.588 0.038 调节服务 Regulation services 0.018 0.062 0.873 0.735 0.733 0.099 支持服务 Support services 0.721 0.869 0.987 0.209 0.103 0.010 文化服务 Cultural services 0.331 0.547 0.947 0.501 0.354 0.041 ESV总量 Total ESV 0.001 0.159 0.807 0.861 0.749 0.172
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