Objective This paper investigates the effects of environmental changes on the distribution and niche of Prunus mira to provide theoretical support for the conservation and development of P. mira resources.

Method In this study, based on 216 geographical distribution data of P. mira, we combined 11 climatic, soil and topographic factors, invoked the maximum entropy value model (MaxEnt) optimized by ENMeval program package to simulate the spatial distribution pattern of potential distribution areas of P. mira under three future climatic conditions. The ecospat package was also used to analyze the changes in the climatic niche of P. mira to determine the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of P. mira.

Result (1) The optimized MaxEnt model can accurately predict the potential geographical distribution areas of P. mira. The distribution areas were mainly located in higher altitude areas such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of northwestern China and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau of southwestern China, with a total area of about 360 711.8 km², among which the Lhasa River Valley, the middle Yarlung Tsangpo River Valley, the Nujiang River, the Lancang River, the Jinsha River and other dry and hot river valleys were highly suitable areas for P. mira. (2) Under future climatic conditions, the overall trend of P. mira suitable area was shrinking to the southwest, and the overall trend of suitable area was decreasing. (3) The main environmental variables affecting distribution of P. mira were annual difference in temperature, isothermality and elevation; the overlap between niche of P. mira and the current niche in the future period gradually decreased with increasing climate change.

Conclusion With future climate change, P. mira will migrate to areas with relatively higher latitude and altitude, and the climatic niche of P. mira will gradually diverge from the current niche, with temperature and altitude being the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of P. mira. Based on the above results, we should establish conservation sites in areas where there is no significant change in both current and future environmental suitability to reduce the effects of global warming, and also to avoid further damage to P. mira resources from disruptive human activities.