Objective In this study, the ecological model was used to analyze and evaluate the distribution of Eremochloa ophiuroides in China and the main factors restricting its modern distribution, so as to provide theoretical basis for turf establishment, management, introduction and cultivation.

Method Based on the geographical distribution records of 262 E. ophiuroides and 19 environmental factors, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and geographic information system were used to predict the current and future suitable distribution area and area of the species, and the accuracy of the model was verified by the receiver operating characteristic curve.

Result The main factor affecting the distribution of suitable area of E. ophiuroides was precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17), and the secondary factors were the mean diurnal range (bio2), the standard deviation of seasonal temperature seasonality (bio4) and the annual precipitation (bio12). Under current climatic conditions, the total suitable area of E. ophiuroides was about 1.835 5 million km², mainly concentrated in the subtropical region of southeast China. Under the future climate scenario, the total suitable area of E. ophiuroides will increase to varying degrees compared with the modern, but the low and high suitable areas will show a downward trend compared with the modern. According to the change of spatial pattern, the retention rate of the suitable area of E. ophiuroides was 90.14%−94.21%. In addition, the centroid of E. ophiuroides was located in Xiangtan City, Hunan Province of central China, suggesting that this area may be the diversity distribution center of E. ophiuroides.

Conclusion It is concluded that precipitation is the main factor affecting the distribution of E. ophiuroides, which should be paid attention to in the future introduction and cultivation, and turf establishment and management.