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    利用空间分布模式与样地设计提升森林资源抽样调查精度

    Using spatial distribution patterns and sample plot design to improve the accuracy of forest resource sampling survey

    • 摘要:
      目的 森林资源调查中,研究森林属性空间分布模式下的抽样设计,以突破地域限制,为抽样调查提供可推广的经验法则。
      方法 利用北京市鹫峰国家森林公园样地调查的实测数据,构建人工总体。以树木死亡率作为为森林属性的代理属性,表达空间自相关。采用系统抽样设计,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟法,评估森林空间自相关、样地大小以及系统抽样设计对抽样精度的影响。
      结果 (1)4种不同空间分布模式的总体变异系数,从小到大依次为:死亡率为0%的总体、死亡率为20%的随机模式总体、死亡率为10%的聚集模式总体、死亡率为20%的聚集模式总体。当死亡率为20%,抽样强度为2.73%时,随机模式的变异系数比聚集模式的变异系数低了1.3%。(2)3种不同大小的样地总体变异系数,从小到大依次为:20 m × 20 m、30 m × 30 m、40 m × 40 m。其中,40 m × 40 m的变异系数明显高于20 m × 20 m和30 m × 30 m对应的变异系数。(3)随着抽样强度增大,随机模式下8 × 8的主单元数目设计的人工总体的变异系数比4 × 4的约高0.02%,比16 × 16的约高0.15%;聚集模式下,8 × 8的N设计的人工总体的变异系数比4 × 4的约高0.32%,比16 × 16的约低0.54%。
      结论 (1)不同强度的空间自相关都会削弱抽样精度,其中聚集模式相比随机模式的影响更为显著;(2)较小的样地有利于提高抽样精度和精度的收敛速度,但合理大小的样地设计才能有效提升抽样效率;(3)系统抽样中不同主单元数目对抽样精度的影响不明显,实际调查中应避免选择样本量为1的系统抽样,否则抽样误差难以度量。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective In forest resource survey, sampling design under the spatial distribution pattern of forest attributes was studied to break through regional limitations and provide generalizable empirical rules for sampling survey.
      Method Artificial forest populations were constructed with the data field survey at the Beijing Jiufeng National Forest Park. Tree mortality rate was used as a proxy for expressing forest spatial autocorrelation. Systematic sampling design was adopted, and Monte Carlo simulations were implemented to evaluate the effects of spatial autocorrelation, sample plot size and systematic sampling on sampling precision.
      Result (1) The coefficients of variation for the four different spatial distribution patterns increased in the following order: 0% mortality, 20% mortality in random pattern, 10% mortality in aggregated pattern, and 20% mortality in aggregated pattern. When mortality rate was 20% and sampling intensity was 2.73%, the coefficient of variation for random pattern was 1.3% lower than that for aggregated pattern. (2) The coefficients of variation for three different sample plot sizes increased in the following order: 20 m × 20 m, 30 m × 30 m, and 40 m × 40 m. The coefficient of variation of 40 m × 40 m was significantly higher than that of 20 m × 20 m and 30 m × 30 m. (3) With increasing sampling intensity, under the random pattern, the coefficient of variation for the artificial population designed with 8 × 8 main units was about 0.02% higher than that for 4 × 4, and about 0.15% higher than that for 16 × 16. Under the clustered pattern, the coefficient of variation for the artificial population designed with 8 × 8 main units was about 0.32% higher than that for 4 × 4, and about 0.54% lower than that for 16 × 16.
      Conclusion (1) Different degrees of spatial autocorrelation reduce sampling accuracy, among which aggregated pattern has a more significant impact than random pattern. (2) Smaller sample plots help improve sampling accuracy and convergence rate, but reasonable sample plot design can effectively enhance sampling efficiency. (3) The number of main units in systematic sampling has little impact on sampling accuracy. In practice, systematic sampling designs with a sample size of 1 should be avoided because sampling errors would be hard to quantify.

       

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