基于遗传效应和气候变量的日本落叶松微纤丝角预测

陈东升; 吴春燕; 谢允慧; 金英博; 张扬; 孙晓梅

doi:10.12171/j.1000-1522.20230063

基于遗传效应和气候变量的日本落叶松微纤丝角预测

Microfibril angle prediction of Larix kaempferi based on genetic effects and climate variables

摘要

摘要:
目的分析遗传效应和气候变量对日本落叶松木材微纤丝角的影响，建立预测模型，预测终端收获木材的质量，旨在提高遗传材料的选育效率和促进目标材种的定向培育。
方法以20个日本落叶松无性系为研究对象，通过木芯取样测定了林龄从4年到15年连续12个年轮的微纤丝角，分析了微纤丝角与林龄和年轮宽度的关系，建立了微纤丝角基础预测模型，然后对微纤丝角和气候变量进行相关性分析，采用混合效应模型构建了含有遗传效应和气候变量的日本落叶松微纤丝角预测模型。
结果（1）微纤丝角随着林龄的增加呈减小趋势，随年轮宽度的增加呈增加趋势，不同无性系间微纤丝角变化规律明显不同。（2）含有林龄和年轮宽度的基础模型确定系数（R²）为0.43，均方根误差（RMSE）为4.391；加入平均年降水量和冬季平均降水量后模型R²为0.54，RMSE为4.039；采用混合模型建立的含遗传效应和平均年降水量、冬季平均降水量的微纤丝角预测模型R²为0.81，RMSE为3.061。（3）平均年降水量和冬季平均降水量增加会增大日本落叶松微纤丝角，两个气候变量解释了微纤丝角变异的11%；遗传效应对日本落叶松微纤丝角变异有重要影响，可解释微纤丝角变异的27%。
结论相较于平均年降水量和冬季平均降水量，遗传效应对木材微纤丝角影响更大。而且不同无性系的微纤丝角对气候因素变化的响应不同，无性系I6-7-075、I8-4-30和J28-6对于气候变化更钝化，是生态适应性更强的无性系，适合进一步在日本落叶松适生区推广应用。

Abstract:
Objective This paper analyzes the effects of genetic and climate changes on wood microfibril angle of Larix kaempferi and establishes predictive models of wood microfibril angle, it can be used to predict the quality of harvested wood at the end, intending to improve the breeding efficiency of genetic materials and promote targeted cultivation of target species.
Method 20 clones of Larix kaempferi were selected as the research objects. The microfibril angle of 12 consecutive annual rings of the forest aged from 4 to 15 years was measured by wood core sampling, the relationship between microfibril angle and tree age and ring width was analyzed. A basic prediction model for microfibril angle was established, and the correlation between microfibril angle and climate variables was analyzed, a mixed effect model was used to establish a prediction model for microfibril angle of Larix kaempferi, which includes genetic effects and climate variables.
Result The microfibril angle decreased with the increase of tree age, while increased with the increase of width of annual ring, the change of microfibril angle was obviously different among varied clones. The basic model containing tree age and ring width had an R² of 0.43 and RMSE of 4.391. After adding average annual precipitation and winter average precipitation, the model had an R² of 0.54 and RMSE of 4.039. The prediction model of microfibril angle with genetic effects, average annual precipitation, and winter average precipitation was established using a mixed model, with R² of 0.81 and RMSE of 3.061.
Conclusion An increase in average annual precipitation and winter average precipitation will increase the microfibril angle of Larix kaempferi, and two climate variables explain 11% of the microfibril angle variation. Genetic effects have a greater impact on microfibril angle of Larix kaempferi, accounting for 27% of microfibril angle variation. Moreover, the microfibril angles of different clones exhibite different responses to climate changes. Clone I6-7-075, I8-4-30 and J28-6 are more passivity towards climate change, making them more ecologically adaptable and suitable for further application in suitable areas of Larix kaempferi.

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