Runoff variation characteristics and attribution analysis of the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River from 1951 to 2020
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摘要:目的
河川径流是地表重要的水资源，对其变化特征和原因进行解析，是流域水资源科学管理规划的前提。
方法本文采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Pettitt突变检验、Budyko弹性系数法等方法分析了黄河上游和中游近70年（1951—2020年）径流变化的趋势和成因。
结果（1）1951—2020年黄河上游年降水量呈不显著增加趋势（4.04 mm/（10 a），P > 0.05），中游呈不显著减少趋势（4.90 mm/（10 a），P > 0.05）；上游、中游年潜在蒸散发均呈不显著增加趋势（1.77、2.23 mm/（10 a），P > 0.05）；（2）黄河上游和中游1980—2020年土地利用/覆盖变化明显，主要表现在林草面积的增加，上游、中游年NDVI分别以0.025/（10 a）、0.042/（10 a）的速率显著增加（P < 0.01）；（3）1951—2020年，上游和中游年径流量分别以3.46、7.46 mm/（10 a）的速率显著减少（P < 0.01），并分别在1986年、1990年发生突变；（4）上游和中游径流对降水变化最为敏感，其次是土地利用/覆盖变化、潜在蒸散发变化，且径流对各影响因子的敏感性逐年增强，即气候和土地利用/覆盖的变化将更容易引起径流的变化；（5）土地利用/覆盖变化是导致黄河上游和中游径流减少的主要原因，其次是降水和潜在蒸散，但各影响因子对径流变化的影响性质和程度在上游和中游不同区间存在一定的差异。其中，上游地区降水、潜在蒸散发、土地利用/覆盖变化对径流的影响性质和程度分别为−14.04%、1.30%、112.73%；中游地区分别为21.54%、3.63%、74.83%。
结论1951—2020年黄河上游和中游径流变化是气候变化和土地利用/覆盖变化共同作用的结果，但主要影响因素为人类活动主导的土地利用/覆盖变化，且各因子对径流的影响在不同区间存在一定的差异。本研究结果可为黄河上游和中游不同区间的水资源管理和综合治理提供理论支持。
Abstract:ObjectiveRiver runoff is an important water resource on the surface of the earth, and the analysis of the characteristics and causes of its change is a prerequisite for the scientific management and planning of water resources in the basin.
MethodThis study used Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt mutation test, Budyko elasticity coefficient method and other methods to analyze trends and causes of runoff variation in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River in recent 70 years (1951−2020).
Result(1) From 1951 to 2020, the annual precipitation in the upper reaches of the Yellow River increased 4.04 mm/(10 year) (P > 0.05) and decrease 4.90 mm/(10 year) (P > 0.05) in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The potential evapotranspiration in the upper and middle reaches showed no significant increase trend (1.77 mm/(10 year), 2.23 mm/(10 year), P > 0.05). (2) From 1980 to 2020, the changes of landuse/cover in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River are obvious, mainly in the increase of forest and grass area, and the NDVI in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River increased significantly at the rates of 0.025/(10 year) (P < 0.01) and 0.042/(10 year) (P < 0.01), respectively. (3) From 1951 to 2020, the runoff of upper and middle reaches decreased at the rate of 3.46 mm/(10 year) (P < 0.01) and 7.46 mm/(10 year) (P < 0.01), respectively, and changed abruptly in 1986 and 1990, respectively. (4) Runoff in the upper and middle reaches is most sensitive to precipitation change, followed by land use/cover change and potential evapotranspiration change, and the sensitivity of runoff to each influencing factor increased year by year, which showed that the change of climate and land use will easily cause runoff change. (5) Land use/cover change was the main cause of runoff decrease in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River, followed by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, but there were some differences in the nature and degree of influencing factors on runoff change in different regions of the upper and middle reaches. Among them, the nature and degree of influence of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and land use/cover change on runoff in the upstream area were −14.04%, 1.30%, and 112.73%, respectively; the midstream area was 21.54%, 3.63%, and 74.83%, respectively.
ConclusionThe runoff change in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River from 1951 to 2020 is the result of climate change and land use/cover change, but the main influencing factor is land use/cover change dominated by human activities, and the influence of each factor on runoff is different in varied intervals. The results of this study can provide theoretical support for water resource management and comprehensive control in different sections of the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River.
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图 1 黄河上游和中游分区及水文气象站点分布
Figure 1. Zoning and distribution of hydrological and meteorological stations in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River
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图 2 1951—2020年黄河上游和中游年降水、潜在蒸散发变化趋势
Figure 2. Changing trend of annual precipitation and potential evaporation in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River from 1951 to 2020
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图 3 1982—2020年黄河上游和中游年植被指数变化趋势
Figure 3. Variation trend of annual NDVI in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River from 1982 to 2020
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图 4 1951—2020年黄河上游和中游年径流变化趋势
Figure 4. Variation trend of annual runoff in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River from 1951 to 2020
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图 5 降水、潜在蒸散发和土地利用/覆盖的弹性系数年际变化
Figure 5. Interannual variation of elasticity coefficients of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and LUCC
表 1 黄河上游和中游降水、潜在蒸散发Mann-Kendall趋势检验结果
Table 1 Results of Mann-Kendall trend test for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the upper andmiddle reaches of the Yellow River
区域 Region 降水量 Precipitation 潜在蒸散发 Potential evapotranspiration Z值 Z value 显著性 Significance 趋势 Trend Z值 Z value 显著性 Significance 趋势 Trend 上游 Upper reaches 1.57 NS 上升 Raise 1.13 NS 上升 Raise 中游 Middle reaches −0.85 NS 下降 Descend 0.91 NS 上升 Raise 注：NS代表不显著。Note: NS represents not significant. 
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表 2 1980—2020年黄河上游和中游土地利用类型面积占比
Table 2 Area proportion of land use types in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River from 1980 to 2020
% 土地利用类型
Land use type上游 Upper reaches 中游 Middle reaches 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 耕地 Cultivated land 12.95 13.06 13.47 13.23 12.99 40.40 40.60 40.53 39.59 37.34 林地 Forest land 7.73 7.75 7.74 7.88 8.11 19.61 19.52 19.57 20.11 20.14 草地 Grassland 62.66 62.79 62.06 61.78 62.72 34.35 34.32 34.48 34.49 35.24 水域 Water area 2.01 1.85 1.88 1.87 2.00 1.11 1.05 0.99 1.05 1.04 建设用地 Construction land 1.19 1.20 1.29 1.43 2.22 1.76 1.79 2.04 2.29 3.87 未利用土地 Unused land 13.46 13.35 13.56 13.81 11.96 2.77 2.72 2.39 2.47 2.37
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表 3 1980—2020年黄河上游和中游土地利用类型的转移矩阵
Table 3 Transfer matrix of land use types in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River from 1980 to 2020
km2 区域 Region 土地利用类型
Land use type上游（2020） Upstream (2020)/中游（2020） Midstream (2020) 耕地
Cultivated land林地
Forest land草地
Grassland水域
Water area建设用地
Construction land未利用土地
Unused land总计
Sum上游（1980）
Upper reaches (1980)耕地 Cultivated land 1 642.45 14 777.75 985.19 3 919.23 1 221.76 55 327.81 林地 Forest land 1 176.14 12 803.56 216.00 265.17 532.04 33 013.47 草地 Grassland 16 597.25 13 662.81 2 160.24 2 839.91 15 187.86 267 661.61 水域 Water area 1 060.61 210.11 2 165.33 199.46 790.17 8 601.84 建设用地 Construction land 2 046.17 162.55 1 041.10 111.01 143.34 5 092.62 未利用土地 Unused land 1 865.18 932.99 19 916.89 884.19 664.84 57 426.06 总计 Sum 55 526.79 34 631.48 267 918.19 8 532.78 9 477.06 51 037.14 中游（1980）
Middle reaches (1980)耕地 Cultivated land 8 925.19 36 861.29 1 241.20 8 183.97 452.14 138 708.52 林地 Forest land 7 532.74 10 804.97 185.61 525.19 158.39 67 251.35 草地 Grassland 32 310.17 11 454.86 639.71 2 094.88 2 347.58 117 911.51 水域 Water area 1 356.22 187.80 612.35 212.61 64.55 3 805.52 建设用地 Construction land 3 220.90 167.08 614.66 63.21 27.89 6 041.37 未利用土地 Unused land 718.53 278.79 3 018.06 85.13 321.30 9 502.68 总计 Sum 128 183.28 69 058.18 120 975.64 3 586.85 13 285.60 8 131.42
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表 4 黄河上游和中游径流趋势及突变检验结果
Table 4 Results of runoff trends and abrupt change tests in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River
范围 Region Mann-Kendall趋势检验 Mann-Kendall trend test Pettitt突变检验 Pettitt mutation test Z值 Z value 显著性 Significance 趋势 Trend 突变年份 Mutation year 显著性 Significance 上游 Upper reaches −3.22 ** 下降 Descend 1986 ** 中游 Middle reaches −6.07 ** 下降 Descend 1990 ** 注：**表示P < 0.01。Note: ** represents P < 0.01.
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表 5 黄河上游和中游不同时期各气象水文要素特征值及弹性系数
Table 5 Characteristic values and elasticity coefficients of each meteorological and hydrological element in different periods in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River
范围 Region 时期 Period R/mm P/mm E0/mm R/P E0/P n 弹性系数 Elasticity coefficient εp εE0 εn 上游 Upper reaches 全时段 Full period（1951—2020） 58.78 405.10 966.66 0.15 2.39 1.51 2.25 −1.25 −2.01 基准期 Base period（1951—1986） 68.66 400.76 964.93 0.17 2.41 1.38 2.11 −1.11 −1.88 变化期 Change period（1987—2020） 48.32 409.69 968.50 0.12 2.36 1.68 2.42 −1.42 −2.16 中游 Middle reaches 全时段 Full period（1951—2020） 42.02 540.07 1021.87 0.08 1.89 2.41 3.10 −2.10 −2.30 基准期 Base period（1951—1990） 54.51 552.26 1016.13 0.10 1.84 2.22 2.88 −1.88 −2.09 变化期 Change period（1991—2020） 25.37 523.80 1029.53 0.05 1.97 2.81 3.56 −2.56 −2.70 注：R. 径流量；P. 降水量；E0.潜在蒸散发量；n.经验参数，主要与流域土地利用类型、植被有关；εp、εE0、εn分别为径流对P、E0和参数n的弹性系数。Notes: R represents runoff; P represents precipitation; E0 represents potential evapotranspiration; n represents empirical parameter which are mainly related to land use types and vegetation in watersheds; εp, εE0, εn, respectively represent the elastic coefficients of runoff for P，E0 and n.
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表 6 黄河上游和中游不同弹性系数绝对值Mann-Kendall趋势分析结果
Table 6 Results of Mann-Kendall trend analysis of different absolute values of elasticity coefficients in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River
范围 Region |εP| |εE0| |εn| Z值
Z value显著性
Significance趋势
TrendZ值
Z value显著性
Significance趋势
TrendZ值
Z value显著性
Significance趋势
Trend上游 Upper reaches 4.58 ** 上升 Raise 4.58 ** 上升 Raise 3.32 ** 上升 Raise 中游 Middle reaches 6.83 ** 上升 Raise 6.83 ** 上升 Raise 5.55 ** 上升 Raise
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表 7 黄河上游和中游径流变化归因分析结果
Table 7 Results of attribution analysis of runoff changes in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River
范围 Region 基准期
Base period变化期
Change periodΔRP/mm ΔRE0/mm ΔRLUCC/mm ΔR'/mm CP/% CE0/% CLUCC/% 上游 Upper reaches 1951—1986 1987—2020 2.91 −0.27 −23.36 −20.72 −14.04 1.30 112.73 中游 Middle reaches 1951—1990 1991—2020 −6.87 −1.16 −23.85 −31.88 21.54 3.63 74.83 注：ΔRP、ΔRE0、ΔRLUCC分别为降水量P、潜在蒸散发量E0和LUCC引起的径流变化量；ΔR' 为计算求得的径流变化量；CP、CE0、CLUCC 分别为降水、潜在蒸散发和LUCC对径流变化的影响性质和程度。Notes: ΔRP, ΔRE0, ΔRLUCC, respectively represent runoff changes caused by precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and LUCC. ΔR' represents runoff change calculated. CP, CE0, CLUCC, respectively represent the nature and degree of influence of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and LUCC on runoff changes.
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