Hazard assessment of forest fire in Miyun District of Beijing based on the subcompartment scale
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摘要:目的
森林火灾危险性评价是实现科学林火管理工作的重要前提和基础，基于小班尺度开展森林火灾危险性评价及其空间特征分析，可为林火精细化管理提供依据。
方法以密云区为研究对象，基于2019年森林资源二类调查小班数据、森林可燃物数据、气象数据、重要火源点等数据，构建密云区森林火灾危险性评价体系，应用层次分析法和熵权法相结合的主客观赋权法确定评价体系中各指标权重，根据评价体系中最终权重采用加权综合评价法计算各小班的危险性指数，依据自然断点分级法划分为高、中高、中低、低4个等级；采用全域和局域莫兰指数判断各小班之间的空间自相关性和聚集分布特征。
结果（1）基于小班尺度综合4类因子构建体系，权重分布比例合理，可较好地开展火灾危险性评价；（2）研究区内高等级、中高等级、中低等级、低等级危险性的小班面积占比分别为12.75%，19.01%，41.70%，26.54%。其中，高等级危险性小班以灌木林、侧柏林、油松林为主，小班面积占比分别为38.40%、25.76%、24.13%；（3）高等级危险性小班分布在研究区范围的东部以及中南部区域，从乡镇尺度分析，呈片状分布于巨各庄镇、高岭镇和新城子镇；（4）小班危险性的全域莫兰指数为0.241 3（大于0），说明密云区各小班存在一定的正相关性，即小班呈现出聚集分布的特征，采用局域莫兰指数分析发现火灾危险性等级为高−高聚集型小班的面积达34 637.77 hm²，占密云区面积的15.56%。
结论（1）构建的森林火灾危险性评价体系中，野外火源所占权重最大，是影响森林火灾危险性的主要因素；（2）高等级危险性小班区域灌木林占比较高，且聚集分布特征明显，根据权重结果，建议增强对野外火源和重点人群的监督和管理；另一方面，制定可燃物清理的标准和要求，定期在农林交错地区和火源点周围进行可燃物清理作业。
Abstract:ObjectiveForest fire hazard assessment is an important prerequisite and foundation for achieving scientific forest fire management. Conducting forest fire hazard assessment and spatial feature analysis on subcompartment scale can provide a basis for refined forest fire management.
MethodTaking the subcompartment of Miyun District as the research object, based on the data of forest resource secondary survey subcompartment, forest fuel data, meteorological data, important fire source points, etc. in 2019, a forest fire hazard assessment system was constructed. We used the subjective and objective weighting methods of combining analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method to determine the weights of various indicators in the evaluation system. Based on the natural breakpoint classification method, four levels were divided as high, medium-high, medium-low, and low. Global and local Moran indices were used to determine the spatial autocorrelation and clustering distribution characteristics between subcompartments.
Result(1) Research was based on the construction of a comprehensive system of 4 types of factors at the subcompartment, with reasonable weight distribution ratios, which can effectively carry out fire hazard assessment. (2) The proportions of hazard subcompartment areas with high level, medium-high level, medium-low level, and low level were 12.75%, 19.01%, 41.70%, and 26.54%, respectively. Among them, the high-level hazard subcompartment was mainly composed of shrubbery, Platycladus orientalis forest, and Pinus tabuliformis forest, with subcompartment areas accounting for 38.40%, 25.76%, and 24.13%, respectively. (3) High level hazardous small classes were distributed in the eastern and central southern regions of the research area. From a township level analysis, they were distributed in a patchy pattern in Jugezhuang Town, Gaoling Town, and Xinchengzi Town. (4) The global Moran index of the hazard of subcompartments was 0.2413 (> 0), indicating that there was a certain positive correlation among the subcompartments in Miyun District and the subcompartments exhibited clustering distribution characteristics. Using the local Moran index analysis, it was found that the area of the subcompartments with a high to high clustering was 346 37.77 ha, accounting for 15.56% of the area of Miyun District.
Conclusion(1) In the forest fire hazard assessment system constructed in this article, the weight of outdoor fire sources is the largest, which is the main factor affecting the forest fire hazard. (2) The proportion of shrub forests in high-risk small class areas is relatively high, and the clustering distribution characteristics are obvious. Based on the weight results, it is recommended to strengthen the supervision and management of outdoor fire sources and key populations; on the other hand, establishing standards and requirements for combustible material cleaning, and combustible material cleaning operations were regularly carried out in areas where agriculture and forestry intersect and around fire sources.
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图 2 密云区小班尺度森林火灾危险性等级图
Figure 2. Forest fire hazard level map at the sub-compartment scale in Miyun District
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图 4 火灾危险性局部空间自相关分析聚集图
Figure 4. Aggregation diagram of local indicators of spatial association (LISA) of fire hazard
表 1 森林火灾危险性评价指标
Table 1 Forest fire hazard assessment index
准则层
Rule layer标准层
Standard layer描述
Description单位 Unit 森林可燃物
Forest fuel地表可燃物载量 Surface fuel load 单位面积灌木、草本、枯落物等可燃物的载量 Amount of surface fuel (shrub, herb, litter) per unit area t/hm2
t/ha细小可燃物载量 Fine fuel load 单位面积枯落物1（直径 < 0.6 cm 的小枝、叶和杂草）、枯落物2（直径0.6 ~ 2.5 cm的小枝、叶和杂草）等可燃物的载量 Total load of combustible materials such as litter 1 (twigs, leaves, and weeds with a diameter of less than 0.6 cm) and litter 2 (twigs, leaves, and weeds with a diameter of 0.6−2.5 cm) per unit area t/hm2
t/ha优势树种（组）可燃性 Dominant tree species (group) flammability 森林被引燃着火的难易程度以及着火后所表现出的燃烧状态和燃烧速度和火强度等的综合 Difficulty of forest ignition, as well as the combustion state (type of fire), combustion speed, and fire intensity exhibited after ignition 气象条件
Meteorological factor月大风日数 Monthly gale day 月平均出现瞬时风力5级或以上的天气日数 Monthly average number of weather days with instantaneous wind force 5 or above is expressed d 月平均风速 Monthly average wind speed 月每日平均风速的平均值 Average value of monthly daily average wind speed m/s 月平均降水量 Monthly mean precipitation 总降水量的月平均值 Monthly average of total rainfall mm 月平均气温 Monthly mean temperature 月每日平均气温的平均值Average daily temperature of the month ℃ 月最高温度 Monthly maximum temperature 月每日最高气温的最高值 The highest value of daily maximum temperature ℃ 月最小相对湿度 Monthly minimum relative humidity 月每日最小相对湿度的最小值 The minimum value of monthly daily minimum relative humidity % 野外火源
Outdoor fire source用火次数 Fire usage frequency 近20年，林区范围内发生的一般、较大森林火灾的总次数 Total number of general and major forest fires that have occurred within the forest area in the past 20 years 次数
times重要火源点个数 Number of important ignition source 林区范围内散坟、露营地、旅游景区、公墓、农村集体安葬点等火源点总数量 Total number of fire sources such as scattered graves, camping sites, tourist attractions, cemeteries, and rural collective burial sites within the forest area 无民事行为能力和限制民事行为能力人口数量 Number of people without or with limited capacity for civil conduct 林区范围内0 ~ 14岁人口、65岁（含）以上人口和残障人口总数量 Total number of people aged 0 − 14, aged 65 or above, and disabled within the forest area 地形因子
Topographical factor坡度 Slope 坡面的垂直高度和水平宽度的比值 Ratio of vertical height to
horizontal width of a slope（°） 坡向 Aspect 坡面的朝向 Orientation of slope 坡位 Slope position 坡面所处的地貌部位 Landform on which a slope is located 
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表 2 森林火灾危险性评价指标权重
Table 2 Weights of forest fire hazard assessment index
一级指标
Primary index一级指标
综合权重
Comprehensive
weight of first
level index二级指标
Secondary index二级指标
熵权法权重
Entropy weight
of secondary
index二级指标
层次分析法权重
Chromatography
analysis weight of
secondary index二级指标
综合权重
Comprehensive
weight of
secondary
index计算尺度
Computing scale森林可燃物
Forest fuel0.215 地表可燃物载量 Surface fuel load 0.020 0.110 0.065 小班
Subcompartment细小可燃物载量 Fine fuel load 0.040 0.140 0.090 小班
Subcompartment优势树种（组）可燃性
Dominant tree species (group) flammability0.020 0.100 0.060 小班
Subcompartment气象条件
Meteorological
factor0.245 月大风日数 Monthly gale day 0.050 0.050 0.050 小班
Subcompartment月平均风速
Monthly average wind speed0.040 0.040 0.040 小班
Subcompartment月平均降水量
Monthly mean precipitation0.030 0.060 0.045 小班
Subcompartment月平均气温
Monthly mean temperature0.040 0.040 0.040 小班
Subcompartment月最高温度
Monthly maximum temperature0.040 0.040 0.040 小班
Subcompartment月最小相对湿度
Monthly minimum relative humidity0.010 0.050 0.030 小班
Subcompartment野外火源
Outdoor fire source0.385 用火次数 Fire usage frequency 0.260 0.100 0.180 乡镇 Township 重要火源点数量
Number of important ignition sources0.130 0.100 0.115 乡镇 Township 无民事行为能力和限制民事行为能力人口数量 Number of people without or with limited capacity for civil conduct 0.120 0.060 0.090 乡镇 Township 地形因子
Topographical
factor0.155 坡度 Slope 0.140 0.040 0.090 小班
Subcompartment坡向 Aspect 0.030 0.040 0.035 小班
Subcompartment坡位 Slope position 0.030 0.030 0.030 小班
Subcompartment
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