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    梅雪松, 董灵波, 陈冠谋. 基于结构方程模型的兴安落叶松天然林碳汇量驱动因素[J]. 北京林业大学学报. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20230284
    引用本文: 梅雪松, 董灵波, 陈冠谋. 基于结构方程模型的兴安落叶松天然林碳汇量驱动因素[J]. 北京林业大学学报. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20230284
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    Mei Xuesong, Dong Lingbo, Chen Guanmou. Driving factors of carbon sink in natural Larix gmelinii forests based on structural equation model[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20230284
    Citation: Mei Xuesong, Dong Lingbo, Chen Guanmou. Driving factors of carbon sink in natural Larix gmelinii forests based on structural equation model[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20230284
    shu

    基于结构方程模型的兴安落叶松天然林碳汇量驱动因素

    Driving factors of carbon sink in natural Larix gmelinii forests based on structural equation model

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 林分碳汇量是森林碳汇能力的重要体现，本研究旨在明确兴安落叶松天然林碳汇量形成的驱动机制，为该地区兴安落叶松天然林碳汇功能的提升提供理论依据。
      方法 本研究以黑龙江省大兴安岭地区第7次和第8次国家森林资源连续清查获取的264块固定样地调查数据为基础，考虑林木生长、枯损、进界和采伐4个碳库，分别从林分、气候、多样性、土壤、地形和采伐6个方面选取24项指标，采用逐步回归和结构方程模型量化了各指标对兴安落叶松天然林碳汇量的影响。
      结果 （1）该地区兴安落叶松天然林2005—2010年间的平均碳汇量为(1.17 ± 0.71) t/（hm2·a）；（2）逐步回归模型的确定系数(R2)、均方根误差（RMSE）和平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为0.60、0.60 t/（hm2·a）和0.45 t/（hm2·a），表明所建模型精度较高，模型筛选出的变量包括Shannon指数、郁闭度、土壤全氮、土壤全钾、优势木平均胸径、年平均降雨量、坡度和林分平均年龄；（3）结构方程模型中各变量对林分碳汇量的路径系数依次为Shannon指数（0.462） > 郁闭度（0.357） > 优势木平均胸径（0.313） > 土壤全氮（0.286） > 土壤全钾（−0.142） > 年平均降雨量（−0.107） > 坡度（−0.069）。
      结论 Shannon指数、优势木平均胸径、郁闭度和土壤条件是影响碳汇量的重要驱动因子，可在后续经营中通过合理抚育间伐或冠下补植来调整林分的树种组成、郁闭度和土壤肥力以达到提升兴安落叶松天然林碳汇功能的目的。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective Stand carbon sink is an important reflection of forest carbon sink capacity. This study aimed to clarify the driving mechanism of carbon sink formation in natural Larix gmelinii forest, and to provide theoretical basis for improving the carbon sink function of natural Larix gmelinii forest in this area.
      Method Based on the survey data of 264 fixed plots from the 7th and 8th continuous national forest resource inventory in Daxing’anling region of Heilongjiang Province, northeastern China, this study selected 24 indexes from 6 aspects, namely stand, climate, diversity, soil, topography and cutting, considering 4 carbon pools of tree growth, mortality, ingrowth and cutting. The effects of each index on carbon sink in natural Larix gmelinii forest were quantified by stepwise regression and structural equation model.
      Result (1) The average carbon sink of natural forest of Larix gmelinii from 2005 to 2010 was (1.17 ± 0.71) t/(ha·year). (2) The determination coefficient (R2), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of the stepwise regression model were 0.60, 0.60 t/(ha·year) and 0.45 t/(ha·year), respectively, indicating that the model was highly accurate. The variables selected by the model included Shannon index, canopy density, soil total nitrogen, soil total potassium, average DBH of dominant trees, annual mean precipitation, slope and average age of stands. (3) In the structural equation model, the path coefficients of Shannon index (0.462) > canopy density (0.357) > average DBH of dominant trees (0.313) > soil total nitrogen (0.286) > soil total potassium (−0.142) > annual mean precipitation (−0.107) > slope (−0.069).
      Conclusion Shannon index, canopy density and soil conditions are important driving factors affecting carbon sink. Tree species composition, average DBH of dominant trees, canopy density and soil fertility can be adjusted through rational thinning or undercrown replanting in subsequent management to improve the carbon sink function of natural forest of Larix gmelinii.

       

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