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    气候和立地等级对落叶松林分生物量估计的影响

    Influence of climate and site grade on biomass estimation of Larix gmelinii stand

    • 摘要:
      目的 构建包含立地等级与气候因子的落叶松生物量模型,分析环境与气候共同作用对生物量估算的影响,为森林经营和决策提供理论依据。
      方法 基于吉林省2004、2009及2014年落叶松人工林固定样地数据,结合World Clim提供的1950—2000年平均气候因子,选用Richards模型作为基础模型。通过地形因子合并立地单元划分立地等级,并将立地等级作为哑变量,建立含立地等级和气候因子的落叶松林分生物量模型,分析气候和立地等级对林分生物量的影响。
      结果 (1)建立的含立地等级和气候因子的模型的拟合精度可达0.961,与训练集得出的各项评价指标差异均小于5%,表现出较好的泛化能力。(2)林分因子对林分生物量的独立解释率为93.7%,立地等级为2.4%,而气候因子仅为0.3%。(3)温度和降水共同影响林分生物量,最干旱季温度升高会降低林分生物量最大值,而最冷季降水增加则可促进林分生物量的增长。
      结论 立地等级对落叶松林分生物量估算的影响大于气候因子。建立的含立地等级和气候因子的落叶松生长收获预估模型,揭示了气候和立地等级对落叶松生物量生长的综合作用,为林分适宜性经营和森林精准增汇提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective This paper constructs a larch biomass model that includes site class and climate factors, and analyzes the combined effects of environment and climate on biomass model within the same forest stand, so as to provide a theoretical basis for forest management and decision-making.
      Method Based on the data from fixed sample plots of larch plantations in Jilin Province of northeastern China in 2004, 2009, and 2014, and average climate factors from 1950−2000 obtained through World Clim, the Richards model was selected as the base model. Topographic factors significantly correlated with biomass were classified and integrated into the site class, which was used as a dummy variable to establish a larch stand biomass model including both site quality and climate factors. The impacts of climate and site quality on stand biomass were also analyzed.
      Result (1) The model incorporating site quality and climatic factors achieved a fitting accuracy of 0.961, with differences in evaluation metrics obtained from the training set being less than 5%, demonstrating good generalization ability. (2) Stand factors independently explained 93.7% of the variance in stand biomass, while site class accounted for 2.4%, and climate factors only 0.3%. (3) Temperature and precipitation jointly affected stand biomass. Higher temperatures in the driest season can reduce the maximum biomass of stand, while increased precipitation in the coldest season can accelerate the growth rate of stand biomass.
      Conclusion Site quality has a greater impact on estimation of larch stand biomass than climate does. The established Larix gmelinii growth and yield prediction model, which incorporates both site class and climate factors, reveals the effects of these factors on larch biomass growth. This can provide scientific guidance for suitable forest stand management and precise carbon sequestration in forestry.

       

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