Objective To address the challenges of climate change and ecological degradation, this paper integrates carbon neutrality targets into multi-objective land use optimization, quantifies the impacts of different development scenarios on ecosystem service value and landscape ecological risk to support regional ecological security pattern optimization and sustainable development decision-making.

Method Taking Beijing as a case study, this study utilized socio-economic and land use data from 2000 to 2020 to construct a land use optimization model incorporating economic, ecological, carbon emission, and carbon storage indicators. Four future scenarios were set (natural development, economic development, economic-ecological balanced development, and low-carbon green development) to analyze the spatial distribution changes of ecosystem service values and landscape ecological risks under each scenario by 2030, and to compare the differences in their response relationships across scenarios.

Result Overall increases in ecosystem service values and reductions in landscape ecological risks represent common trends across all scenarios. The low-carbon green development scenario exhibited the highest increase in total ecological value, reaching 8.97 billion RMB, the overall risk reduction was the largest, with a total proportion of 1.280% being high and higher risk. With planning intervention, the negative correlation between ecosystem service values and landscape ecological risks was strengthened. In the low-carbon green development scenario, the synergistic relationship between ecosystem service values and landscape ecological risks showed significant weakening, with high value-low risk zones increasing to 22.652%. Across all scenarios, constraining construction space while promoting the expansion and connectivity of blue-green infrastructure emerged as a crucial measure for alleviating regional ecological protection pressures.

Conclusion After land structure optimization, the trade-off between ecological values and ecological risks within the region have been strengthened, though new small-scale risk zones have emerged. The low-carbon green development scenario indicates that regional ecosystem management should actively adopt a multi-level coordinated protection and development approaches.