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    北京市怀柔区森林火灾安全格局定量评价

    Quantitative evaluation of forest fire security patterns in Huairou District, Beijing

    • 摘要:
      目的 定量评价森林火灾安全格局,可为建立景观林火安全保障体系提供数据支持,最大限度减少可能发生的林火蔓延带来的潜在损失。
      方法 以北京市怀柔区为研究对象,从致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露度、承灾体脆弱性3个维度,选取29个二级指标,基于GIS开展北京市怀柔区森林火灾安全格局定量评价。应用熵权法确定评价指标权重,应用加权综合评价法计算森林火灾安全格局指数,应用自然断点分级法将森林火灾安全格局划分为高、中高、中低、低4个等级。选用莫兰指数作为空间自相关指数,探讨森林火灾安全格局指数的空间关联模式。
      结果 (1)承灾体暴露度在蓄积安全格局、生态安全格局、建筑物安全格局、人口安全格局评价中的指标权重分别为0.51、0.70、0.62、0.77,是影响森林火灾安全格局的主要因素。(2)低等级安全区域面积在蓄积安全格局、生态安全格局、建筑物安全格局、人口安全格局中分别占17.06%、36.26%、0.58%、1.89%。(3)怀柔区森林火灾安全格局指数空间异质性显著,呈现出集聚分布的规律,蓄积、生态、建筑物、人口安全格局的低−低集聚型村屯面积分别占11.42%、37.31%、6.13%、7.61%。
      结论 低等级蓄积和生态安全区域主要分布在怀柔区北部喇叭沟门乡,低等级建筑物和人口安全区域主要分布在怀柔区东南部区域。建议通过增加斑块数量、增加斑块交错程度的方式增加景观破碎度和异质性,通过营造生物防火林带的方式形成林火阻隔效果,降低林火蔓延的潜在影响。同时要加强重要承灾体的保护力度,做好灾前预防和源头管理工作。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective Quantitative evaluation of forest fire security pattern can provide a basis for establishing landscape forest fire security guarantee system, and minimize the potential loss caused by forest fire spread.
      Method Taking Huairou District of Beijing as the research object, this study selected 29 secondary indexes from three aspects: hazard of disaster factors, exposure of disaster bearing bodies and vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies, and carried out quantitative evaluation of forest fire security patterns in Huairou District of Beijing based on GIS. The entropy weight method was used to determine the evaluation index weight, the weighted comprehensive evaluation method was used to calculate the forest fire security pattern index, and the natural breakpoint classification method was used to divide the forest fire security patterns into four levels: high, medium-high, medium-low, low. Moran’s I index was selected as the spatial autocorrelation index to explore the spatial correlation model of forest fire security pattern index.
      Result (1) The index weights of exposure of disaster bearing bodies in the evaluation of stock security pattern, ecological security pattern, building security pattern and population security pattern were 0.51, 0.70, 0.62 and 0.77, respectively, which were main factors affecting forest fire security pattern. (2) The area of low-level security zones accounted for 17.06%, 36.26%, 0.58%, and 1.89% of stock security pattern, ecological security pattern, building security pattern, and population security pattern, respectively. (3) The spatial heterogeneity of forest fire security pattern index in Huairou District was significant, showing a pattern of agglomeration distribution. The area of low-low agglomeration type villages in stock, ecological, building and population security pattern accounted for 11.42%, 37.31%, 6.13% and 7.61%, respectively.
      Conclusion Low-level stock and ecological security areas are mainly distributed in Labagoumen Township in the northern part of Huairou District, while low-level building and population security areas are mainly distributed in southeastern part of Huairou District. It is suggested to increase landscape fragmentation and heterogeneity by increasing the number of patches and degree of patch interlocking, and to create a forest fire barrier effect by creating a biological fire prevention forest belt to reduce potential impact of forest fire spread. At the same time, we need to strengthen the protection of important disaster bearing bodies and do a good job in pre-disaster prevention and source management.

       

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