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    都市圈冷热岛空间网络构建与优化可解释机器学习与电路理论的融合

    Construction and optimization of cold and heat island networks for metropolitan area: an integration of interpretable machine learning and circuit theory

    • 摘要:
      目的 随着城市化进程的加速,城市热岛效应的跨区域传导问题愈发凸显,成为亟待解决的环境问题。然而,传统阻力面构建方法在研究城市热岛效应时,存在主观性较强以及难以充分考虑空间异质性等问题,限制了对城市群间热环境关联机制的深入理解。因此,本研究以厦漳泉大都市圈为研究对象构建冷热岛空间网络,旨在揭示城市群间的热环境关联机制,并提出多尺度协同优化策略,为城市热环境的优化提供科学依据,助力区域气候适应性规划的推进,有效应对城市热岛效应带来的挑战。
      方法 为实现上述目标,本研究创新性地整合XGBoost-GeoSHapley可解释机器学习模型与电路理论。通过XGBoost-GeoSHapley加性解释分析方法,结合地表温度分级结果,精准构建冷热岛阻力面,并深入量化阻力因子的空间效应、非线性关系以及交互作用。在此基础上,借助电路理论,精准识别冷热岛网络,进而识别关键的夹点、障碍点和中心性区域。最终,结合区域特征,提出针对性的优化策略,为厦漳泉大都市圈的热环境优化提供具体指导。
      结果 冷岛网络呈现出“西北山地主导,沿海湿地补充”的格局,而热岛网络则主要集中在东部建成区。本研究共识别出43条热岛廊道(总长度412.99 km)和85条冷岛廊道(总长度1 693.08 km),并划定了热岛优先整改区1 067.25 km2(占比4.4%)以及冷岛保护核心区7 980.71 km2(占比32.9%)。与传统方法相比,本研究构建的冷热岛网络结构更为合理,连通性及整体性显著提升,其中冷岛的闭合值α、线点比β和连通率γ等指标均优于热岛对应指标,表明冷岛网络的连通性和整体性更优,这为城市热环境的优化提供了有力支持。
      结论 本研究将XGBoost-GeoSHapley模型与电路理论相结合,提出了一种适用于城市圈尺度的冷热岛空间网络构建方法。该方法有效解决了传统阻力面构建方法中存在的主观赋权与空间异质性问题。通过提高冷热岛廊道识别与调控精度,本研究构建了厦漳泉都市圈“一带三轴三核多片”的冷热岛交互格局,并提出了“纵向阻断 + 横向疏导”的治理框架。这一成果不仅为超大城市圈冷热岛网络的构建提供了重要的理论与实践参考,也为区域气候适应性规划提供了有力支持。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective With the acceleration of urbanization, the inter-regional transmission of urban heat island (UHI) effect has become increasingly prominent, posing an urgent environmental challenge. Traditional methods for constructing resistance surfaces in UHI studies are limited by their subjectivity and inability to fully account for spatial heterogeneity, restricting a deep understanding of thermal environment linkage mechanisms among urban agglomerations. This study focused on the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou metropolitan area to construct a cold and heat island spatial network, aiming to reveal the thermal environment linkage mechanisms between urban clusters, and propose multi-scale collaborative optimization strategies. These strategies provide a scientific basis for optimizing urban thermal environments, and support regional climate adaptation planning to effectively address the challenges posed by UHI effect.
      Method To achieve the above objectives, this study innovatively integrated the XGBoost-GeoSHapley interpretable machine learning model with circuit theory. By employing the XGBoost-GeoSHapley additive explanation analysis method, combined with land surface temperature classification results, we accurately constructed resistance surfaces for cold and heat islands, and quantified the spatial effects, non-linear relationships, and interactions of resistance factors. Building on this foundation and using circuit theory, we precisely identified the cold and heat island networks, detecting key pinch points, obstacle points, and centrality areas. Finally, we proposed targeted optimization strategies informed by regional characteristics, offering specific guidance for optimizing the thermal environment in the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou metropolitan area.
      Result The cold island network exhibits a pattern dominated by northwestern mountainous areas, supplemented by coastal wetlands, while the heat island network is primarily concentrated in the eastern urban areas. A total of 43 heat island corridors (total length of 412.99 km) and 85 cold island corridors (total length of 1 693.08 km) were identified, along with a heat island priority rectification area of 1 067.25 km2 (4.4%) and a cold island protection core area of 7 980.71 km2 (32.9%). Compared with traditional methods, the cold and heat island network structure constructed in this study was more rational, with significantly improved connectivity and integrity. Key indicators for cold islands, such as the closure value α, line-to-point ratio β, and connectivity rate γ, outperformed their heat island indicators, indicating superior connectivity and integrity for the cold island network. This provides strong support for optimizing urban thermal environments.
      Conclusion By integrating the XGBoost-GeoSHapley model with circuit theory, this study proposes a method for constructing cold and heat island spatial networks at the urban agglomeration scale, effectively overcoming the issues of subjective assignment and spatial heterogeneity in traditional resistance surface construction methods. Through enhanced precision in identifying and regulating cold and heat island corridors, we have established the “one belt, three axes, three cores, and many pieces” interaction pattern of cold and heat islands in the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou metropolitan area. We also propose a governance framework of “vertical blocking + horizontal channeling”, offering significant theoretical and practical references for constructing cold and heat island networks in megacity agglomerations, and providing substantial support for regional climate adaptation planning.

       

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