高级检索

    数字孪生驱动森林精准经营决策:理论模型、关键技术与应用示范

    Digital-twin-driven precise forest management and decision-making: theoretical models, key technologies and application demonstrations

    • 摘要: 森林经营是实现森林质量精准提升的关键路径。由于森林类型复杂且生长周期长,森林经营长期面临管理粗放、方案实施困难,智能化水平低,试错成本高等突出问题,严重制约了森林质量精准提升。针对上述挑战,本文首先剖析了森林经营决策的转型需求——从粗放经验向数字智能转变,并阐释了森林数字孪生体的构建机理——将“林地”转变为“决策实验室”。在此基础上,围绕数据智能感知与更新、林分结构智能解析、森林生长建模与智能模拟、森林经营方案智能编制与优选、经营措施精准实施、经营成效智能评估与决策反馈等关键环节,提出了数字孪生驱动的精准经营决策理论模型和关键技术。以塞罕坝机械林场尚海纪念林数字孪生系统为例,系统阐释了从森林数字孪生构建、林分生长模拟、林分结构分析到森林经营决策优化的实现路径。最后,探讨了面临的机遇与挑战:“数字中国”战略引领、生物多样性保护与碳中和目标驱动、森林质量精准提升需求以及人工智能赋能形成多重战略契机;但亟需攻克多源异构数据融合更新、大规模孪生体高效建模、多目标优化决策的可解释性、虚实精准联动交互等关键技术瓶颈。为此,本文提出与多模态大模型、具身智能、生成式人工智能、元宇宙等前沿技术深度融合的演进方向,旨在推动森林经营向精准化、高效化和智能化发展,赋能林草行业高质量发展。

       

      Abstract: Forest management is the critical pathway for improving forest quality. Existing management models are constrained by the complexity of forest types and long growth cycles, resulting in coarse management practices, difficulties in implementing operational plans, low levels of intelligence, and high trial-and-error costs. These limitations hinder the realization of precise forest management objectives. To address these challenges, this paper first analyzes the transformation demands of forest management and decision-making from experience-based approaches to data- and intelligence-driven paradigms and elaborates the construction mechanism of forest digital twins, which transform forestlands into decision-making laboratories. On this basis, a digital-twin-driven framework for precise forest management and decision-making was proposed, encompassing key modules such as intelligent data perception and updating, stand structure analysis, forest growth modeling and intelligent simulation, intelligent formulation and optimization of management plans, precise operation execution, and intelligent evaluation and feedback of management performance. Using the Shanghai Forest of Saihanba Mechanized Forest Farm, Hebei Province of northern China as an empirical case, the paper systematically demonstrates the complete implementation pathway from digital twin construction, stand growth simulation, and stand structure analysis to forest management optimization. Finally, it discusses the opportunities and challenges facing this framework. The multiple strategic opportunities were created by “Digital China” strategy providing strategic leadership, biodiversity conservation and carbon neutrality goals driving initiatives, the demand for precise forest quality enhancement together with AI empowerment. However, critical technological bottlenecks remain to be addressed, including the integration and updating of multi-source heterogeneous data, efficient large-scale twin modeling, interpretable multi-objective optimization decision-making, and precise virtual-real interactive linkage. To this end, this paper outlines its future evolution toward deep integration with multimodal large models, embodied intelligence, generative artificial intelligence and the metaverse, aiming to promote precision, efficiency and intelligence in forest management and to empower the high-quality development of forestry and grassland sector.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回