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基于GARP和MaxEnt的云杉矮槲寄生分布区的预测

张超 陈磊 田呈明 李涛 汪荣 杨启青

张超, 陈磊, 田呈明, 李涛, 汪荣, 杨启青. 基于GARP和MaxEnt的云杉矮槲寄生分布区的预测[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2016, 38(5): 23-32. doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20150516
引用本文: 张超, 陈磊, 田呈明, 李涛, 汪荣, 杨启青. 基于GARP和MaxEnt的云杉矮槲寄生分布区的预测[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2016, 38(5): 23-32. doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20150516
ZHANG Chao, CHEN Lei, TIAN Cheng-ming, LI Tao, WANG Rong, YANG Qi-qing. Predicting the distribution of dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium sichuanense) with GARP and MaxEnt models[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2016, 38(5): 23-32. doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20150516
Citation: ZHANG Chao, CHEN Lei, TIAN Cheng-ming, LI Tao, WANG Rong, YANG Qi-qing. Predicting the distribution of dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium sichuanense) with GARP and MaxEnt models[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2016, 38(5): 23-32. doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20150516

基于GARP和MaxEnt的云杉矮槲寄生分布区的预测

doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20150516
基金项目: 

十二五”

国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD19B0702)、林业公益性行业科研专项(201204503)

详细信息
    作者简介:

    张超。主要研究方向:森林病理学。Email:451623688@qq.com 地址:100083北京市海淀区清华东路35号北京林业大学林学院。

    责任作者:

    田呈明,教授,博士生导师。主要研究方向:森林病理学。Email:chengmt@bjfu.edu.cn 地址:同上。

Predicting the distribution of dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium sichuanense) with GARP and MaxEnt models

  • 摘要: 云杉矮槲寄生(Arceuthobium sichuanense)是一种寄生性种子植物,主要寄生于云杉属植物,近年来对我国“三江源”地区的云杉天然林和次生林造成严重危害。本研究利用GARP和MaxEnt生态位模型,基于已报道的云杉矮槲寄生分布点的数据,对其在中国的分布区进行了预测和分析,并采用ROC曲线对预测结果进行检验和评价。结果表明:GARP模型预测的分布范围较广,MaxEnt内部层次更细致,为得到最佳结果,将2个模型的预测结果赋予一定的权重(4:1)从而获得最佳结果;ROC曲线评价结果表明,GARP-MaxEnt模型的AUC值为0.937,达到了极高的精度。通过该模型预测可见,云杉矮槲寄生在中国的适生区主要集中在青海、甘肃、四川和西藏地区,其中青海、甘肃、四川交界区域为云杉矮槲寄生的极度适宜分布区。本研究结果有利于全面了解云杉矮槲寄生的分布范围,对云杉矮槲寄生害的调查与监测以及制定科学防治策略具有重要的理论指导意义。

     

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  • 收稿日期:  2015-12-28
  • 修回日期:  2015-12-28
  • 刊出日期:  2016-05-31

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