高级检索
    刘丹, 刘士玲, 郭忠玲, 崔晓阳, 范春楠. 水冬瓜赤杨种群生命表与时间序列分析[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2017, 39(10): 62-69. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20170035
    引用本文: 刘丹, 刘士玲, 郭忠玲, 崔晓阳, 范春楠. 水冬瓜赤杨种群生命表与时间序列分析[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2017, 39(10): 62-69. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20170035
    LIU Dan, LIU Shi-ling, GUO Zhong-ling, CUI Xiao-yang, FAN Chun-nan. Population life table and time sequence prediction of Alnus sibirica[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2017, 39(10): 62-69. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20170035
    Citation: LIU Dan, LIU Shi-ling, GUO Zhong-ling, CUI Xiao-yang, FAN Chun-nan. Population life table and time sequence prediction of Alnus sibirica[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2017, 39(10): 62-69. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20170035

    水冬瓜赤杨种群生命表与时间序列分析

    Population life table and time sequence prediction of Alnus sibirica

    • 摘要: 本文对水冬瓜赤杨种群进行调查,根据生命表理论和生存分析理论,选用年龄结构替代树木径级结构的空间代时间方法和匀混技术,绘制水冬瓜赤杨种群静态生命表,同时绘制出种群亏损率曲线、存活曲线、死亡曲线、生存函数曲线和时间序列预测图,阐述种群数量动态变化并简析其产生原因。结果表明:种群的存活曲线属于Deevey-Ⅱ型;存活曲线、死亡率和消失率曲线以及4个生存函数分析表明,前期稳定,中期波动,后期衰退是该种群的特点;时间序列分析表明,同一时间的曲线,种群数量表现出随龄级增大而减少的趋势,随时间推移,幼龄级数量呈递减趋向,个体数量在中龄级和老龄级中所占比例逐渐增大,种群天然更新能力较差,自然条件下,种群在今后将趋向于衰退。

       

      Abstract: Based on the population life table and survival analysis theory, the population static life table of Alnus sibirica was compiled by spatial sequence instead of time method and homogenization technique, which replace the age structure with tree diameter structure. And the population loss rate curve, survival curve, death curve, survival function curve and time series forecasting chart were drawn to analyze the population dynamics. The results illustrated that the survival curve of Alnus sibirica was likely to the type of Deevey-Ⅱ. The survival curve, mortality rate and extinction rate curve and four survival functions of Alnus sibirica population showed that the characteristics of this population were stable in early age period, fluctuant in middle age period, then recessionary in old age period. The time series analysis showed that the population quantity tended to decrease with the age increased in same time curve, meanwhile, the number of juvenile population decreased gradually and the proportion of individuals in middle and old age period increased gradually over time. The population has a poor natural regeneration ability, and the population will tend to decline under natural conditions.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回