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水冬瓜赤杨种群生命表与时间序列分析

刘丹 刘士玲 郭忠玲 崔晓阳 范春楠

刘丹, 刘士玲, 郭忠玲, 崔晓阳, 范春楠. 水冬瓜赤杨种群生命表与时间序列分析[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2017, 39(10): 62-69. doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20170035
引用本文: 刘丹, 刘士玲, 郭忠玲, 崔晓阳, 范春楠. 水冬瓜赤杨种群生命表与时间序列分析[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2017, 39(10): 62-69. doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20170035
LIU Dan, LIU Shi-ling, GUO Zhong-ling, CUI Xiao-yang, FAN Chun-nan. Population life table and time sequence prediction of Alnus sibirica[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2017, 39(10): 62-69. doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20170035
Citation: LIU Dan, LIU Shi-ling, GUO Zhong-ling, CUI Xiao-yang, FAN Chun-nan. Population life table and time sequence prediction of Alnus sibirica[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2017, 39(10): 62-69. doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20170035

水冬瓜赤杨种群生命表与时间序列分析

doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20170035
基金项目: 

吉林省森工集团项目 2013-22

科技部科技基础性工作专项 2007FY110400

详细信息
    作者简介:

    刘丹,博士生。主要研究方向:森林群落学和种群生态学。Email:liuxiaomiaoaichiyv@163.com  地址:150040 黑龙江省哈尔滨市香坊区和兴路26号东北林业大学林学院

    责任作者:

    郭忠玲,教授,博士生导师。主要研究方向:森林生态学。Email:gzl65@163.com   地址:132013 吉林省吉林市丰满区华山路3999号北华大学林学院

  • 中图分类号: S718.54

Population life table and time sequence prediction of Alnus sibirica

  • 摘要: 本文对水冬瓜赤杨种群进行调查,根据生命表理论和生存分析理论,选用年龄结构替代树木径级结构的空间代时间方法和匀混技术,绘制水冬瓜赤杨种群静态生命表,同时绘制出种群亏损率曲线、存活曲线、死亡曲线、生存函数曲线和时间序列预测图,阐述种群数量动态变化并简析其产生原因。结果表明:种群的存活曲线属于Deevey-Ⅱ型;存活曲线、死亡率和消失率曲线以及4个生存函数分析表明,前期稳定,中期波动,后期衰退是该种群的特点;时间序列分析表明,同一时间的曲线,种群数量表现出随龄级增大而减少的趋势,随时间推移,幼龄级数量呈递减趋向,个体数量在中龄级和老龄级中所占比例逐渐增大,种群天然更新能力较差,自然条件下,种群在今后将趋向于衰退。

     

  • 图  1  长白山林区水冬瓜赤杨种群存活曲线

    lnlx为种群存活数对数值。

    Figure  1.  Survival curve of Alnus sibitica population in Changbai Mountain

    lnlx is the logaruthm of the survive number of population.

    图  2  水冬瓜赤杨种群死亡率和消失率曲线

    qx是各径级的死亡率;kx表示消失率。

    Figure  2.  Mortality rate and vanishong rate curves of Alnus sibirica population

    qx is the mortality rate at each age level; kx is the rate of disapperance.

    图  3  水冬瓜赤杨种群生存函数

    S(t)为生存率函数;F(t)为累计死亡率函数;f(t)为死亡密度函数;λ(t)为危险率函数。

    Figure  3.  Survival functional rate of Alnus sibirica population

    S(t) is the function of available survival rate; F(t) is the cumulative mortality function; f(t) is the death density function; λ(t) is the risk function.

    图  4  水冬瓜赤杨种群数量动态时间序列预测

    M0为现在的各径级水冬瓜赤杨数量分布曲线;M2为2年曲线;M5为5年曲线;M10为10年曲线。

    Figure  4.  Time series predictition of Alnus sibitica population

    M0 is the curve of current Alnus sibirica quantitative distribution at each age; M2 is the 2-year curve; M5 is the 5-year curve; M10 is the 10-year curve.

    表  1  不同林分样地水冬瓜赤杨种群概况

    Table  1.   General situation of Alnus sibirica population in different plots

    编号No. 地点Location 样地面积Sample area/m2 种群平均胸径Mean DBH/cm 种群密度/(株·hm-2)Population density/(pant·ha-1) 郁闭度Shade density 海拔Elevat-ion/m 坡位Slope position 坡度Grad-ient 坡向Aspect 土壤厚度Thickness of soil/cm 群落类型Coenotype
    1 古洞河林场 600 25.6 250 0.79 824.7 河岸 30 水冬瓜赤杨-水曲柳混交林
    Gudonghe Forest Farm Riverside None Alnus sibiritca-Fraxinus mandschurica mingled forest
    2 东明林场 900 17.38 311 0.77 598.3 河谷 34 水冬瓜赤杨-水曲柳混交林
    Dongming Forest Farm Valley None Alnus sibirica-Fraxinus mandschurica mingled forest
    3 古洞河林场 600 11.58 1 150 0.93 794.1 道边水湿地 85 水冬瓜赤杨-旱柳混交林
    Gudonghe Forest Farm Roadside meadow bog None Alnus sibirica-Salix matsudana mingled forest
    4 古洞河林场 600 10.41 1 050 0.81 795.2 道边水湿地 60 水冬瓜赤杨-旱柳混交林
    Gudonghe Forest Farm Roadside meadow bog None Alnus sibirica-Salix matsudana mingled forest
    5 三合林场 400 8.13 867 0.75 611.6 河谷 60 水冬瓜赤杨-旱柳混交林
    Sanhe Forest Farm Valley None Alnus sibirica-Salix matsudana mingled forest
    6 三合林场 300 8.6 1 350 0.63 612.9 河谷 70 水冬瓜赤杨-旱柳混交林
    Sanhe Forest Farm Valley None Alnus sibirica-Salix matsudana mingled forest
    7 三合林场 400 12.55 1 025 0.88 614.6 河谷 60 水冬瓜赤杨-旱柳混交林
    Sanhe Forest Farm Valley None Alnus sibirica-Salix matsudana mingled forest
    8 东明林场 400 14.97 925 0.64 549 道边水湿地 55 水冬瓜赤杨-白桦混交林
    Dongming Forest Farm Roadside meadow bog None Alnus sibirica-Betula platyphylla mingled forest
    9 东明林场 450 8.33 377 0.64 598 道边水湿地 64 水冬瓜赤杨-白桦混交林
    Dongming Forest Farm Roadside meadow bog None Alnus sibirica-Betula platyphylla mingled forest
    10 许家沟林场 600 18.24 533 0.73 796.3 道边水湿地 85 水冬瓜赤杨-白桦混交林
    Xujiagou Forest Farm Roadside meadow bog None Alnus sibirica-Betula platyphylla mingled forest
    11 许家沟林场 600 15.78 550 0.74 793 道边水湿地 80 水冬瓜赤杨-白桦混交林
    Xujiagou Forest Farm Roadside meadow bog None Alnus sibirica-Betula platyphylla mingled forest
    12 许家沟林场 600 12.2 867 0.75 815.1 道边水湿地 75 水冬瓜赤杨-白桦混交林
    Xujiagou Forest Farm Roadside meadow bog None Alnus sibirica-Betula platyphylla mingled forest
    13 古洞河林场 600 10.35 1 417 0.82 794.6 道边水湿地 30 水冬瓜赤杨林
    Gudonghe Forest Farm Roadside meadow bog None Alnus sibirica forest
    14 东明林场 900 11.98 1 600 0.67 605.9 河谷 30 水冬瓜赤杨林
    Dongming Forest Farm Valley None Alnus sibirica forest
    15 东明林场 900 13.44 1 088 0.65 596.2 河谷 30 水冬瓜赤杨林
    Dongming Forest Farm Valley None Alnus sibirica forest
    16 东明林场 900 15.58 1 088 0.79 570.2 道边水湿地 65 水冬瓜赤杨林
    Gudonghe Forest Farm Roadside meadow bog None Alnus sibirica forest
    17 东明林场 600 8.04 2 366 0.8 578.9 道边水湿地 47 水冬瓜赤杨林
    Gudonghe Forest Farm Roadside meadow bog None Alnus sibirica forest
    18 三合林场 400 14.06 1 244 0.81 304.6 河谷 45 水冬瓜赤杨林
    Sanhe Forest Farm Valley None Alnus sibirica forest
    19 三合林场 400 9.71 2 475 0.89 563.3 道边水湿地 40 水冬瓜赤杨林
    Sanhe Forest Farm Roadside meadow bog None Alnus sibirica forest
    20 三合林场 450 7.85 2 650 0.92 555.1 下坡 21 ° 东坡 45 水冬瓜赤杨林
    Sanhe Forest Farm Down grade East Alnus sibirica forest
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  长白山林区水冬瓜赤杨种群静态生命表

    Table  2.   Static life table of Alnus sibirica population in Changbai Mountain

    径级
    Diameter class
    ax ax lx lnlx dx qx Lx Tx ex Kx
    1 99 274 1 000 6.908 78 0.079 961 7 495 7.495 0.082
    2 122 253 922 6.826 78 0.085 882 6 534 7.090 0.089
    3 195 231 843 6.737 78 0.093 804 5 651 6.704 0.098
    4 268 210 765 6.639 78 0.103 725 4 848 6.340 0.108
    5 314 188 686 6.531 78 0.114 647 4 122 6.008 0.121
    6 179 167 608 6.410 78 0.129 568 3 475 5.719 0.138
    7 137 145 529 6.271 78 0.148 490 2 907 5.493 0.161
    8 120 124 451 6.111 78 0.174 411 2 417 5.362 0.191
    9 220 102 372 5.920 78 0.211 333 2 005 5.387 0.237
    10 117 81 294 5.683 27 0.093 280 1 672 5.693 0.098
    11 95 73 266 5.585 26 0.096 254 1 392 5.226 0.101
    12 67 66 241 5.484 26 0.106 228 1 139 4.727 0.112
    13 52 59 215 5.372 26 0.119 203 911 4.229 0.126
    14 28 52 190 5.246 26 0.135 177 708 3.731 0.145
    15 39 45 164 5.101 26 0.156 151 531 3.233 0.169
    16 20 38 139 4.932 26 0.184 126 380 2.737 0.204
    17 25 31 113 4.729 26 0.226 100 254 2.242 0.256
    18 33 24 88 4.473 26 0.292 75 153 1.750 0.345
    19 21 17 62 4.128 26 0.412 49 78 1.265 0.531
    20 17 10 36 3.597 26 0.700 24 29 0.800 1.204
    21 17 3 11 2.393 5 5 0.500
    注:axx径级的存活数;axx径级经匀滑处理后的存活数; lxx级标准化的存活数; dx是相邻两径级期间标准化的死亡个体数; qx是各径级的死亡率; Lx指平均的存活个体数(从x径级到x+1径级); Tx是个体总数或总寿命(x径级到超过x径级); ex表示进入x径级个体的生命期望寿命; Kx表示消失率。Notes: ax is the standardized survive number of x-class; lx is the standardized survive number of x-level; dx is the standardized dead number of between the two adjacent age classes; qx is the mortality rate at each age level; Lx is the mean of surviving individuals (from x age to x+1 age); Tx is the total number of individuals or the total life span (x age to more than x age); ex indicates the life expectancy of individual entering into x age; Kx means vanishing rate.
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2017-02-12
  • 修回日期:  2017-05-11
  • 刊出日期:  2017-10-01

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