ObjectiveCerasus humilis, a unique ecological tree species in China, has significant ecological value and economic value in windproof and sand fixation, so it is important to predict the global potential habitat of C. humilis and analyze its niche, which is beneficial for its cultivation promotion and sand control.

MethodAccording to 379 distribution points of C.humilis and 19 ecological variables, four ecological niche models (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, GARP, MAXENT) were used to predict the potential suitable distribution area of C. humilis and analyze its ecological characteristics. The predicted results were evaluated by two statistical criteria, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Kappa value.

ResultThe results showed that the potential distribution area of C.humilis was mainly located in the range of 30°-52° N and 102°-137° E, including China, South Korea, North Korea, and Russian Far East bordering northeast China. Besides, a small amount of area was located in Afghanistan and Tajikistan as well. Among them, the most suitable area was mainly distributed in China. The model evaluation results showed that the AUC values of the four models were above 0.85 and the Kappa values were above 0.7, indicating their good prediction accuracy and consistency, so they can well predict the potential suitable area of C. humilis. The ecological characteristics of the distribution area for C.humilis were that the range of annual average temperature was 3.2 - 13.9℃, the monthly mean value of diurnal temperature difference (max. temperature-min. temperature) was 10.1-13.0℃, the range of isothermality was 24 - 30, SD of temperature seasonality ranged from 9 234 to 13 581, precipitation of the wettest month ranged from 115 to 226mm, precipitation of the driest month was 2 to 10mm and the variation range of precipitation seasonality was 77 - 115.

ConclusionPotential suitable distributing area of C.humilis was mainly in temperate zone monsoon climate and the most suitable area was mainly located in northeastern and northern China, where large-scale cultivation of C.humilis can be achieved for desertification management. In Korean, North Korea, Russian Far East and Afghanistan, the suitability was relatively low, so small-scale cultivation trials can be conducted before expanding production.