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    唐书培, 穆丽光, 王晓玲, 张静, 刘波, 孟和达来, 鲍伟东. 基于MaxEnt模型的赛罕乌拉国家级自然保护区斑羚生境适宜性评价[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2019, 41(1): 102-108. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20180176
    引用本文: 唐书培, 穆丽光, 王晓玲, 张静, 刘波, 孟和达来, 鲍伟东. 基于MaxEnt模型的赛罕乌拉国家级自然保护区斑羚生境适宜性评价[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2019, 41(1): 102-108. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20180176
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    Tang Shupei, Mu Liguang, Wang Xiaoling, Zhang Jing, Liu Bo, Menghedalai, Bao Weidong. Habitat suitability assessment based on MaxEnt modeling of Chinese goral in Saihanwula National Nature Reserve, Inner Mongolia of northern China[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2019, 41(1): 102-108. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20180176
    Citation: Tang Shupei, Mu Liguang, Wang Xiaoling, Zhang Jing, Liu Bo, Menghedalai, Bao Weidong. Habitat suitability assessment based on MaxEnt modeling of Chinese goral in Saihanwula National Nature Reserve, Inner Mongolia of northern China[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2019, 41(1): 102-108. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20180176
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    基于MaxEnt模型的赛罕乌拉国家级自然保护区斑羚生境适宜性评价

    Habitat suitability assessment based on MaxEnt modeling of Chinese goral in Saihanwula National Nature Reserve, Inner Mongolia of northern China

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的内蒙古赛罕乌拉国家级自然保护区内的中华斑羚是一个孤立的小种群，急需开展救护措施。通过分析该物种在保护区内的适宜生境，为保护区制定物种保护方案提供科学依据。
      方法本文基于GIS技术，结合该保护区内中华斑羚分布位点和生境变量数据，运用MaxEnt模型对斑羚的生境适宜性进行评价分析。
      结果模型的评价结果达到优秀水平(AUC=0.967)，其中月平均昼夜温差、最干月降水量、海拔、距护林站距离、距居民点距离、归一化植被指数对斑羚的分布有重要影响；生境适宜区主要分布在保护区中南部，适宜生境面积为4891.23hm2，占研究区域的4.59%；不考虑干扰因子情况下，适宜区面积可增加12685.14hm2。
      结论斑羚的生境选择可能与斑羚对觅食利益和捕食风险的权衡有关；斑羚对干扰因子具有回避效应，且干扰因子对斑羚适宜生境影响显著，建议控制无关人员进入保护区，以降低人为干扰。模型预测结果初步明确了斑羚在保护区内的分布状况，对保护区制定斑羚保护措施具有重要意义。

       

      Abstract:
      ObjectiveThe Chinese goral in the Inner Mongolia Saihanwula National Nature Reserve of northern China is an isolated population that is in urgent need of ambulance measures. Using habitat assessment can provide a scientific basis for the development of species conservation programs in the reserve.
      MethodIn this paper, we used geographic information systems (GIS) and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict habitat suitability for Naemorhedus griseus in the Saihanwula National Nature Reserve. The accuracy of MaxEnt model was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis method with the data of field occurrence records of N. griseus and environmental factors.
      ResultThe results revealed that the area value was 0.967 under ROC curve (AUC) according to the model evaluation, approved that the model predication was adequate and excellent. The results also showed that the mean diurnal range, precipitation of driest month, altitude, distance to ranger station, distance to residential and normalized difference vegetation index were the main factors influencing habitat selection of N. griseus. Suitable habitat was mainly distributed in south-central of the nature reserve, with the total area of 4891.23ha, accounting for 4.59% of the total assessment area. The absence of interference factors increased the suitable habitat of goral by 12685.14ha.
      ConclusionThe results of this study indicate that the habitat selection of the goral may be related to the trade-offs between foraging benefits and predation risk. The results also indicate that gorals had avoidance tendency to interference factors in habitat selection. Therefore, it is recommended to control any personal entering into the reserve to reduce human interference. In addition, this study clarifies the actual distribution of the goral in Saihanwula National Nature Reserve and has significant merits for planning management measures to protect this threatened species.

       

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