Evolutionary driving mechanism of greenspace in central Beijing City based on the PLSR model
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摘要:目的由城市绿地、农田、林地、湿地和水域构成的绿色空间对于保障社会和谐、经济高效、生态宜人和居住舒适，以及维护城市可持续发展具有重要意义。理清其景观动态的变化及其驱动机制对于指导北京市中心城绿色空间合理规划以提升其大生态环境具有重要意义。方法以北京市中心城为研究范围，选取1992、2000、2008、2016年4个时间节点进行绿色空间演变驱动机制研究，利用偏最小二乘回归分析法探究社会经济因素、自然因素对绿色空间演变的影响作用。结果社会经济因素与各地类面积演变的偏最小二乘回归分析结果显示：地区生产总值、人均GDP、常住人口、建设用地面积4项影响因子对各地类面积演变的变量投影重要性VIP值均大于1；自然因素中影响各地类斑块类型面积指数演变的变量投影重要性VIP值均小于1。结论社会经济是北京市中心城绿色空间演变的直接驱动力，人口规模的增加、地区经济的增长、产业结构的调整是导致绿色空间演变的重要因素，而自然因素对绿色空间演变的影响作用相对静态，且不如社会经济因素明显。本研究科学合理地阐明了影响绿色空间发展的关键因素，为制定合理科学的绿地发展、保护政策提供参考依据。Abstract:ObjectiveThe greenspace composed of urban green space, farmland, woodland, wetland and water area is of great significance to ensure social harmony, economic efficiency, ecological comfort and living comfort, so as to maintain the sustainable development of the city. It is of great significance to clarify the dynamic change of landscape and its driving mechanism to guide the reasonable planning of green space in central Beijing so as to improve its large ecological environment.MethodIn this study, the central Beijing City was taken as the research area, and four time nodes of 1992, 2000, 2008 and 2016 were selected to study the driving mechanism of green space evolution. The influence of social and economic factors, natural factors and policy factors on the evolution of greenspace was investigated by partial least squares regression analysis.ResultPartial least-squares regression analysis results of social and economic factors and the evolution of regional area showed that the four influencing factors of regional gross output value, per capita GDP, permanent population and construction land area to the variable importance VIP value of the evolution of regional area were all greater than 1. Among the natural factors, the variable projection importance VIP value affecting the evolution of the area index of the type of plaques in various regions was less than 1.ConclusionThe research shows that social economy is the direct driving force of the green space evolution in the central Beijing City, and the increase of population scale, the growth of regional economy and the adjustment of industrial structure are the important factors leading to the green space evolution. The influence of natural factors on the evolution of green space is relatively static and less obvious than that of social and economic factors. This study scientifically and rationally clarifies the key factors affecting the development of green space, and provides a reference for formulating reasonable and scientific policies on green space development and protection.
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Keywords:
- central Beijing City /
- greenspace /
- evolution /
- driving mechanism
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图 2 1992—2016年北京市中心城平均气温和降水空间分布
Figure 2. Spatial distribution map of average temperature and precipitation in central Beijing City in 1992−2016
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图 3 北京市中心城土壤质地和有机碳空间分布
依据第二次全国土壤普查数据改绘Redrawn based on data from the second national soil census
Figure 3. Spatial distribution map of soil texture and organic carbon in central Beijing City
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图 4 2016年北京市中心城DEM空间分布
依据中国科学院计算机网络信息中心地理空间数据云平台数据改绘Redrawn according to the geospatial data cloud platform of the computer network information center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
Figure 4. Spatial distribution map of DEM in 2016 in central Beijing City
表 1 北京市中心城绿色空间演变的驱动因子
Table 1 Driving factors of greenspace evolution in central Beijing City
分类 Classification 影响因子 Impact factor 单位 Unit 数据来源 Data source 自然因素
Natural factor年平均气温
Annual average temperature℃ 北京市各气象站数据
Data of Beijing meteorological stations年降水量
Annual precipitationmm 北京市各气象站数据
Data of Beijing meteorological stations土壤
Soil第二次全国土壤普查数据
Second national soil census data高程
Elevationm 中国科学院计算机网络信息中心地理空间数据云平台
Geospatial data cloud platform of computer network information center of Chinese Academy of Sciences社会经济因素
Socioeconomic factor地区生产总值
Gross regional domestic product亿元
Billion CNY北京统计年鉴1993—2016、北京区域统计年鉴2002—2016
Beijing statistical yearbook 1993−2016, Beijing regional statistical yearbook 2002−2016人均GDP
Per catipa GDP万元/人
104 CNY/
person北京统计年鉴1993—2016、北京区域统计年鉴2002—2016
Beijing statistical yearbook 1993−2016, Beijing regional statistical yearbook 2002−2016第一产业产值比例
Proportion of primary industry output value% 北京统计年鉴1993—2016、北京区域统计年鉴2002—2016
Beijing statistical yearbook 1993−2016, Beijing regional statistical yearbook 2002−2016第二产业产值比例
Proportion of the secondary industry output value% 北京统计年鉴1993—2016、北京区域统计年鉴2002—2016
Beijing statistical yearbook 1993−2016, Beijing regional statistical yearbook 2002−2016第三产业产值比例
Proportion of the tertiary industry output value% 北京统计年鉴1993—2016、北京区域统计年鉴2002—2016
Beijing statistical yearbook 1993−2016, Beijing regional statistical yearbook 2002−2016农业总产值
Total output value of agriculture亿元
Billion CNY北京统计年鉴1993—2016、北京区域统计年鉴2002—2016
Beijing statistical yearbook 1993−2016, Beijing regional statistical yearbook 2002−2016林业投资完成值
Completion value of forestry investment亿元
Billion CNY北京统计年鉴1993—2016、北京区域统计年鉴2002—2016
Beijing statistical yearbook 1993−2016, Beijing regional statistical yearbook 2002−2016绿化投资额
Green investment亿元
Billion CNY北京园林绿化年鉴2000—2015、北京统计年鉴1993—2016、北京区域统计年鉴2002—2016
Beijing landscape yearbook 2000−2015, Beijing statistical yearbook 1993−2016, Beijing regional statistical yearbook 2002−2016常住人口
Permanent population万人
Ten thousand people北京统计年鉴1993—2016、北京区域统计年鉴2002—2016
Beijing statistical yearbook 1993−2016, Beijing regional statistical yearbook 2002−2016农村人口
Rural population万人
Ten thousand people北京统计年鉴1993—2016
Beijing statistical yearbook 1993−2016建设用地面积
Construction areakm2 北京统计年鉴1993—2016、北京区域统计年鉴2002—2016
Beijing statistical yearbook 1993−2016, Beijing regional statistical yearbook 2002−2016
下载: 导出CSV
表 2 绿色空间面积与社会经济因素指标的偏最小二乘回归结果
Table 2 Partial least-square regression results between greenspace area and socioecomic indices
项目
Item耕地
Farmland林地
Woodland草地
Grassland湿地及水域
Wetland and water area主成分数
Principal component number2 2 2 2 模型解释能力
Model interpretation ability (R2Y)0.662 0.771 0.839 0.856 交叉有效性
Cross validation (Q2)0.392 0.65 0.726 0.736 变量投影重要性和回归系数
Variable projection importance (VIP) & regression coefficient (RC)VIP RC VIP RC VIP RC VIP RC 绿化投资额
Green investment1.00 − 0.15 1.00 0.16 1.05 0.18 0.83 0.10 地区生产总值
Gross regional output1.19 − 0.14 1.47 0.25 1.49 0.28 1.73 0.33 人均GDP
Per capita GDP1.08 − 0.10 1.05 0.06 1.04 0.08 1.03 0.01 第一产业产值比例
Proportion of primary industry output value0.75 0.01 0.83 − 0.02 0.82 − 0.04 0.88 − 0.05 第二产业产值比例
Proportion of the secondary industry output value0.93 − 0.02 1.03 0.04 0.97 0.03 1.05 − 0.02 第三产业产值比例
Proportion of the tertiary industry output value0.98 − 0.02 1.08 − 0.02 1.02 − 0.01 1.11 0.00 农业总产值
Total output value of agriculture0.64 0.02 0.29 − 0.06 0.17 − 0.02 0.28 − 0.05 林业投资完成值
Completion value of forestry investment0.24 0.01 0.64 0.03 0.24 0.03 0.21 0.02 常住人口
Permanent population1.59 − 0.29 1.66 0.33 1.79 0.38 1.72 0.34 农村人口
Rural population0.53 0.06 0.52 0.00 0.48 0.04 0.54 − 0.02 建设用地面积
Construction area2.04 − 0.43 1.50 0.32 1.83 0.42 1.48 − 0.32
下载: 导出CSV
表 3 绿色空间斑块类型面积与自然因素指标的偏最小二乘回归结果
Table 3 Partial least-square regression results between greenspace area and natural indices
项目
Item耕地
Farmland林地
Woodland草地
Grassland湿地及水域
Wetland and water area主成分数
Principal component number2 2 2 2 模型解释能力
Model interpretation ability (R2Y)0.662 0.771 0.839 0.856 交叉有效性
Cross validation (Q2)0.392 0.65 0.726 0.736 变量投影重要性和回归系数
Variable projection importance (VIP) & Regression coefficient (RC)VIP RC VIP RC VIP RC VIP RC 高程 Elevation 0.53 − 0.06 0.86 0.16 0.50 − 0.01 0.62 − 0.09 土壤有机碳
Soil organic carbon0.88 0.10 0.77 0.09 0.81 0.08 0.75 − 0.06 土壤质地
Soil texture0.67 0.08 0.56 − 0.08 0.65 − 0.08 0.54 − 0.05 平均气温
Average temperature0.99 0.04 0.92 0.11 0.96 − 0.02 0.99 − 0.04 平均降水
Mean precipitation0.80 0.17 0.66 0.14 0.44 0.09 0.59 0.12
下载: 导出CSV
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