Effects of stand age and climate change on the volume of Pinus massoniana forests in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of central China
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摘要:目的林龄增长和气候变化是影响森林蓄积量变化的关键因素，研究这两种因素对区域尺度森林蓄积的影响具有重要意义。方法本文基于生态过程模型（3-PG）、森林资源规划设计调查数据及3种未来气候情景（BS、RCP4.5和RCP8.5），量化了林龄和气候变化对三峡库区马尾松林蓄积的影响。结果2009—2050年林龄促使三峡库区马尾松林蓄积年均增长2.60 × 106 m3/a或2.60 m3/（hm2·a）；而气候变化对蓄积生长的促进作用较小，年均增量为1.70 × 105 ~ 2.00 × 105 m3/a或0.17 ~ 0.20 m3/（hm2·a），相当于林龄影响的6.55% ~ 7.67%。林龄和气候变化对马尾松林蓄积生长的促进作用在三峡库区中部最强，而在库区南部最弱。林龄促进马尾松林单位面积蓄积年均增长最高和最低的地区分别是万州区和巴南区，对应值为4.54 和1.17 m3/（hm2·a）。气候变化对开州区单位面积蓄积年均增长的促进作用最高，为0.40 m3/（hm2·a），而对涪陵区的促进作用最低，为0.03 m3/（hm2·a）。结论林龄和气候变化均促进马尾松林蓄积生长，其共同作用将使万州区和开州区马尾松林单位面积蓄积年均增量最高，而使巴南区蓄积年均增量最低。未来需重点关注巴南区马尾松林生长，通过加强抚育管理、调整林龄结构以维持区域森林资源增长。Abstract:ObjectiveBoth stand age and climate change are crucial factors influencing forest volume dynamics, and it is important to investigate their effects on forest volume on a regional scale.MethodBased on an ecological process model (3-PG), data from a forest resource planning and design survey and three future climate scenarios (BS, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), this study quantified the effects of stand age and climate change on the volume growth of Pinus massoniana forests in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) of central China.ResultStand age was predicted to increase the annual average volume of the Pinus massoniana forests by 2.60 × 106 m3/year or 2.60 m3/(ha·year) in the TGRA during 2009 to 2050. While the effect of climate change was less pronounced than that of stand age, an annual volume increment of 1.70 × 105−2.00 × 105 m3/year or 0.17−0.20 m3/(ha·year) only accounted for 6.55%−7.67% of the effect of stand age. The effects of both stand age and climate change on volume growth in Pinus massoniana forests were predicted to be the strongest in the central part and the weakest in the southern part of the TGRA. The Wanzhou District was predicted to present the highest annual average increment of volume per hectare (4.54 m3/(ha·year)) owing to stand age; while Banan District, the lowest value (1.17 m3/(ha·year)). The promoting effects of climate change on volume growth were predicted to be the highest in Kaizhou District (0.40 m3/(ha·year)); the lowest in Fuling District (0.03 m3/(ha·year)).ConclusionBoth stand age and climate change are predicted to enhance the volume growth of the Pinus massoniana forests, and their combined effects would most increase the annual average volume increment per hectare in Wanzhou and Kaizhou Districts and least in Banan District. Studies are required to focus on the growth of Pinus massoniana forests in Banan District in the future through strengthening of forest management and adjustment of the forest age structure to maintain the development of regional forest resources.
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Keywords:
- stand age /
- Pinus massoniana forests /
- natural driving force /
- climate change
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图 2 三峡库区马尾松林的林龄结构
BN. 巴南区；FD. 丰都县；FL. 涪陵区；JJ. 江津区；DT. 主城区；WS. 巫山县；WX. 巫溪县；XS. 兴山县；YL. 夷陵区；YB. 渝北区；BD. 巴东县；SZ. 石柱土家族自治县；ZX. 忠县；WL. 武隆区；FJ. 奉节县；ZG. 秭归县；CS. 长寿区；YY. 云阳县；KZ. 开州区；WZ. 万州区。下同。BN, Banan District; FD, Fengdu County; FL, Fuling District; JJ, Jiangjin District; DT, Downtown; WS, Wushan County; WX, Wuxi County; XS, Xingshan County; YL, Yiling District; YB, Yubei District; BD, Dadong County; SZ, Shizhu Tujia Autonomous County; ZX, Zhongxian County; WL, Wulong District; FJ, Fengjie County; ZG, Zigui County; CS, Changshou District; YY, Yunyang County; KZ, Kaizhou District; WZ, Wanzhou District. Same as below.
Figure 2. Stand age structure of Pinus massoniana forests in the TGRA
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图 3 2009—2050年三峡库区3种未来情景气候特征
BS为基线情景；RCP4.5为中低浓度情景；RCP8.5为高浓度情景。BS, baseline scenario; RCP4.5, medium-low concentration scenario; RCP8.5, high concentration scenario.
Figure 3. Climate characteristics of 3 future scenarios in the TGRA during 2009 to 2050
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图 4 3-PG模拟值与样地实测蓄积的比较
Figure 4. Comparison between 3-PG model simulated volume and the plot measurement volume
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图 5 2009—2050年三峡库区马尾松林蓄积动态及自然驱动力的影响
Figure 5. Dynamics and the impacts of natural driving force on the volume of Pinus massoniana forests in the TGRA during 2009 to 2050
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图 6 自然驱动力对马尾松林蓄积影响的空间分布格局
Figure 6. Spatial distribution patterns of the effects of natural driving force on the Pinus massoniana forest volume
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图 7 自然驱动力对不同区县马尾松林蓄积的影响
Figure 7. Effects of natural driving force on the Pinus massoniana forest volume in different districts
表 1 三峡库区马尾松林概况
Table 1 Description of Pinus massoniana forests in the TGRA
不同尺度
Different scale胸径范围
DBH range/cm树高范围
Tree height range/m林龄范围
Stand age range/a林分密度/（株·hm−2）
Stand density/(tree·ha−1)面积/hm2
Area/ha蓄积
Volume/m3个数
Number三峡库区马尾松林
Pinus massoniana forests
in the TGRA5.0 ~ 46.6 1.9 ~ 18.8 2 ~ 66 84 ~ 3 675 9.86 × 105 8.09 × 107 21 073 典型小班
Typical subclass5.0 ~ 46.6 1.9 ~ 18.8 2 ~ 66 105 ~ 3 214 0.03 ~ 36 17.0 ~ 494.6 566 实测样地
Measured plot6.1 ~ 23.0 5.1 ~ 20.0 15 ~ 52 975 ~ 3 475 0.04 ~ 0.06 31.4 ~ 366.4 41 
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表 2 3-PG模型参数修正值
Table 2 Modified 3-PG model parameters
参数 Parameter 值 Value 来源 Source 胸径2 cm时树叶与树干分配比 Foliage:stem partitioning ratio with DBH = 2 cm 0.346 9 F 胸径20 cm时树叶与树干分配比 Foliage:stem partitioning ratio with DBH = 20 cm 0.064 7 F 干生物量与胸径关系的常数值 Constant in the relation of stem mass and DBH 0.137 9 F 干生物量与胸径关系的幂值 Power in the relation of stem mass and DBH 2.343 6 F 净初级生产量分配给根的最大比例 Maximum fraction of NPP to roots 0.35 F 净初级生产量分配给根的最小比例 Minimum fraction of NPP to roots 0.25 [22] 生长最低气温 Minimum temperature for growth/℃ 0 [18] 生长最适气温 Optimum temperature for growth/℃ 17.5 [18] 生长最高气温 Maximum temperature for growth/℃ 40 [18] fq = 0.5时的水分亏缺比 Moisture ratio deficit for fq = 0.5 0.5 [18] 水分亏缺比的幂值 Power of moisture ratio deficit 9 D 大树的死亡速率 /(%·a− 1)Mortality rate for large tree/(%·year− 1) 1 D 死亡响应模型 Shape of mortality response 1 D 林分密度为1 000株/hm2时最大立木树干生物量/（kg·株− 1）
Max. stem mass per tree when stand density was 1 000 tree/ha/(kg·tree− 1)300 D 自疏函数中的幂值 Power in self-thinning rule 1.5 D 每株死木叶生物量损失比例 Fraction mean single-tree foliage biomass lost per dead tree 0 [18] 每株死木根生物量损失比例 Fraction mean single-tree root biomass lost per dead tree 0.2 [16] 每株死木干生物量损失比例 Fraction mean single-tree stem biomass lost per dead tree 0.2 [16] 林龄为0时的比叶面积 Specific leaf area at stand age was 0 6.4 [23] 成熟叶的比叶面积 Specific leaf area for mature leaves/(m2·kg− 1) 3.7 [23] 比叶面积为（SLA0 + SLA1）/2时的林龄/a Stand age at which specific leaf area was (SLA0 + SLA1)/2/year 3 [23] 消光系数 Extinction coefficient for absorption of PAR by canopy 0.5 D 冠层量子效率 Canopy quantum efficiency/(mol·mol− 1) 0.033 [18] 净初级生产力/总初级生产力 Ratio of NPP/GPP 0.47 D 最小冠层导度 Minimum canopy conductance/(m·s− 1) 0 [14] 最大冠层导度 Maximum canopy conductance/(m·s− 1) 0.02 [14] 最大冠层导度的LAI LAI for maximum canopy conductance 3 [18] 定义气孔对饱和水汽压差的响应 Defines stomatal response to VPD/(1·mBar− 1) 0.05 [18] 冠层边界层导度 Canopy boundary layer conductance/(m·s− 1) 0.2 [24] 树干材积关系中常数值 Constant in the stem volume relationship 0.000 181 4 F 树干材积关系中胸径的幂值 Power of DBH in the stem volume relationship 2.352 F 树干材积关系中材积的幂值 Power of stocking in the stem volume relationship 1 F 注：F为拟合参数；D为默认参数。 Notes: F means fitting parameters; D means default parameters.
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表 3 2009—2050年3种气候情景的三峡库区马尾松林蓄积
Table 3 Volumes of Pinus massoniana forests under 3 climate scenarios in the TGRA during 2009 to 2050
情景
Scenario蓄积 Volume/(106·m3) 单位面积蓄积/（m3·hm− 2） Volume per hectare/(m3·ha− 1) 2009 2050 平均值
Mean年均增量
Annual average increment2009 2050 平均值
Mean年均增量
Annual average incrementBS 48.22 153.51 130.26 2.60 48.89 155.65 132.08 2.60 RCP4.5 160.50 134.52 2.78 162.74 136.40 3.97 RCP8.5 161.71 135.33 2.81 163.96 137.21 4.00
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表 4 林龄及气候变化对三峡库区马尾松林蓄积的影响
Table 4 Effects of stand age and climate change on Pinus massoniana forest volume in the TGRA
效应
Effect蓄积 Volume/(106·m3) 单位面积蓄积/（m3·hm− 2） Volume per hectare/(m3·ha− 1) 林龄的影响
Effect of stand age气候变化影响
Effect of climate change林龄的影响
Effect of stand age气候变化影响
Effect of climate change2009—2050期间总效应
Total effects during 2009 to 2050105.29 6.99 ~ 8.19 106.76 7.09 ~ 8.31 2009—2050期间年均效应
Annual average effects during 2009 to 20502.60 0.17 ~ 0.20 2.60 0.17 ~ 0.20
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