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    组合预测法在林分断面积生长预估中的应用

    Application of forecast combination in prediction of stand basal area

    • 摘要: 林分断面积生长模型的研究是林分因子建模中的主要对象,研究提高林分断面积生长模型的预测精度十分重要。组合预测法能够对不同模型的预测结果进行组合,把不同模型的预测误差分散化,从而提高预测精度。基于北京山区油松定期清查数据,根据残差的方差最小原则确定组合预测中各模型的权重,将单木水平预测所得的林分断面积与林分水平预测所得的断面积进行组合预测。结果表明:组合预测法预测林分断面积的精度比单一水平(单木水平、林分水平)预测的精度都高,同时组合预测法也改进了林分断面积预测模型的兼容性。

       

      Abstract: Stand basal area is an important variable in forecasting stand growth and yield. A stand basal area growth model is a major component in stand variable modeling. A forecast combination combines information and disperses errors from different models and, as well, improves the accuracy of prediction. In this study, weights of different models were determined with minimum error variance. Based on periodic data of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) stands from the mountain areas of Beijing, a forecast combination was used to estimate stand basal area from both stand-level and tree-level models. The results showed that the forecast combination for predicting stand basal area outperformed both stand-level and tree-level models. It also improves the compatibility of stand basal area growth models. 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