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    差分生长模型的应用分析与研究进展

    Application analysis and recent advances of projection growth models

    • 摘要: 差分生长模型是一种特殊的混合参数模型,通过指定一个随林分而变化的参数来解释不同林分生长曲线间的差异。由于这一特征,差分生长模型在生长收获预估中得到了广泛应用。本文一般性地介绍了差分生长模型在林分和单木生长过程中的应用、差分方程的数学性质及数学性质间的相互关系;从统计角度详细论述了变量初值y1的统计意义和与y1相关联的随机误差e1对预测的影响作用;由于差分生长模型最新研究成果主要在于方程推导、参数估计和预测误差分析等方面,因此详细讨论了模型推导方法中的广义代数差分法(GADA)、主要的参数估计方法和预测误差分析方法。

       

      Abstract: A projection model is a special case of a mixed parameter model, which accounts for the variations among different stand growth curves by assigning a parameter as site-dependent or individual-dependent. Due to this property, projection models have been widely used in stand growth and yield modeling. This paper gives a general overview of applications of projection models in modeling growth of stands and single trees, mathematical properties of the models and relationships among their properties. The role of the initial value of the response variable (y1) and the effect of the random error term associated with y1 (e1) on model predictions were statistically investigated. The latest research about projection models mainly focus on the derivation of projection equations, estimation of parameters and analysis of prediction errors. We also discuss the generalized algebraic difference approach (GADA), parameter estimation methods and analysis method of prediction errors.

       

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