Objective  Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an essential driving factor affecting regional ecosystem service values. The study analyzed the impact of land use evolution on the value of ecosystem service values (ESV), so as to provide scientific reference for regional construction of ecological civilization.

  Method  Based on land use status maps in 2010 and 2020, this study simulated land use patterns of Beijing in 2030 under three different development scenarios, and analyzed the impact of land use changes on total ESV with sustainable development goal 15 (SDG 15).

  Result  (1) From 2010 to 2020, the overall land use changes in Beijing showed a pattern of reduced arable land, grassland and water area, while forest land and construction land expanded. From 2020 to 2030, the trend of changes in various regions under the natural increase scenario (NIS) had slowed down compared with that from 2010 to 2020. Under the ecosystem protection scenario (EPS), forest and water area increased significantly compared with that in 2020, whose change rates were 4.96% and 14.26%, respectively. Under the cropland protection scenario (CPS), the trend of cropland reduction and urban expansion got curbed efficiently. (2) The total amount of ESV in 2010, 2020 and 2030 (NIS, EPS and CPS) was 41.84 billion CNY, 40.99 billion CNY, 40.36 billion CNY, 43.24 billion CNY and 40.70 billion CNY, respectively. For each land type, forest land, waters and arable land accounted for over 90% of the total ESV, with construction land encroachment and water restoration being the main reasons for ESV loss and gain, respectively. (3) Forest cover rate was increasing gradually in Beijing from 2020 to 2030. Additionally, the proportion of degraded land under the three scenarios was NIS > EPS > CPS, resulting in the loss of ESV of 380 million CNY, 410 million CNY and 810 million CNY, respectively, both exhibited opposite trends in size.

  Conclusion  Waters, arable land and construction land are the main types of land use changes in Beijing, and the conversion between the three is also a key reason for the fluctuation of the total ESV. In future land use planning, ecological protection and arable land protection measures should be comprehensively considered to achieve the maximization of regional ecosystem service value and the achievement of sustainable development goals.